TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Lindsay Clancy
- Kalshi
Lindsay Clancy - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Mar 31, 2027
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list?
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Description
This event group determines which person will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global 'People' list. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer binary markets on specific individuals, with Polymarket also including a catch-all 'someone else' option. Resolution depends entirely on Google's published ranking when released.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global People ranking as the sole resolution source, with identical logic: whoever ranks #1 resolves YES for that person's market, all others resolve NO.Primary resolution logic: Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global 'People' list, published at trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ (Global → Trending → People section)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when Google publishes the Year in Search 2026 Global People ranking
- The individual ranked #1 on that official list triggers YES for all markets naming that person
- All other named individuals resolve NO
- Polymarket's 'someone else' option resolves YES only if the #1 person is not among the 46 named candidates
- If Google does not publish the list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi markets face unspecified but likely similar cancellation logic
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Multiple platforms, same person: If Taylor Swift ranks #1, both Kalshi market #4 and Polymarket market #18 resolve YES simultaneously
- Unnamed person ranks #1: Polymarket's 'someone else' market resolves YES; all 46 named-person markets resolve NO; Kalshi's 13 named markets resolve NO
- Google does not publish list by deadline: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi resolution mechanism unspecified but should follow similar cancellation protocol
- Polymarket Person 1-45 placeholder markets: These appear to be reserved slots for future specification or catch-all logic; they resolve YES only if the #1 person matches their eventual definition, otherwise NO
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the individual ranked #1 in the People section of Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global report. Only the People section applies; rankings in other report sections do not qualify. Exactly one person will rank first, and the market resolves Yes for whichever outcome matches that top-ranked individual.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets operate on a different principle than traditional analyst forecasts. Rather than relying on expert opinion, these venues aggregate the collective judgment of traders risking real capital on their predictions. Market prices reflect live, dynamic consensus—updated continuously as new events unfold. This mechanism often captures signals faster than published analyst reports, since traders have immediate financial incentive to price in breaking news. For this market, comparing the odds here to media speculation or pundit rankings can reveal where smart money diverges from conventional wisdom.
Polymarket currently favors Will Person 1 be the #1 searched person on Google this year? at 24.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? at 26.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences can stem from variations in user demographics, trading volume concentration, and how each platform's community interprets available evidence. Regulatory frameworks and contract specifications may also differ slightly between venues, leading traders to weight outcomes differently. Monitoring both platforms helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and understand where disagreement persists.
This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner will be determined by identifying who Google officially recognizes as the most-searched person globally for the year. Resolution hinges on Google's own Year in Search announcement, a widely anticipated annual publication. Until that date, traders can adjust positions based on cultural moments, media coverage, and real-world events that might influence search volume.
Major news cycles, viral moments, and celebrity or political developments can rapidly shift search interest and reshape odds. Award shows, scandals, legal proceedings, and entertainment releases all influence who captures public attention. Interim Google Trends data and social media momentum often foreshadow year-end search rankings, giving traders early signals to reprice. Sports achievements, humanitarian events, and unexpected controversies can also trigger sudden spikes in search volume for specific individuals, making this market sensitive to real-time developments across entertainment, politics, and global news.