TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$143,200,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,735,575,990
484,453
Markets across
35,831
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,362
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
$
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
On Polymarket, this market currently reflects a strong probability of re-entry, differing noticeably from some analyst outlooks that remain more cautious. While experts debate timing and conditions, traders appear to price in a higher near-term likelihood. This gap can highlight where market sentiment diverges from institutional or media assessments, offering insight into crowd-sourced expectations for military progress.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that pay out if Ukraine re-enters Rodynske by the set date. The current implied probability reflects aggregated bets and positions, updated instantly with each trade. Volume of $170,990 shows how much capital is actively engaged in pricing this outcome on the platform.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If Ukraine successfully re-enters Rodynske before the deadline, yes contracts pay out; otherwise, no contracts win. The resolution depends on clear, publicly documented evidence of control or presence in the area.
Key developments like major Ukrainian offensives, Russian defensive adjustments, or geopolitical shifts could sway this market. Reports of breakthroughs, equipment deployments, or changes in international support may cause rapid price swings. Traders will watch battlefield updates and official statements closely, as any sign of progress or setback can reshape expectations on Polymarket before Jan 1, 2027.