TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$124,291,538

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,192,009,184

337,556

Markets across

34,185

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,362

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by 2026-12-31?

Mar 9, 2026, 11:19 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$64,571
Volume 24h:
$100N/A
Liquidity:
$1,475
44%
Open interest:
$4,227N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?

46%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 47¢ buys you 213 shares | Odds: 46% Total Payout: $213 | Net Profit: $113 Multiplier: 2.13x | ROI: 113% High Projected APY: 776% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
46%
1%
Yes 47¢No 56¢
3¢
$1,092
$18,447
0.55%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
11%
14%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$383
$24,390
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,159
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,332
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Ukrainian forces will regain control of the settlements of Obratne or Temyrivka in Zaporizhzhya Oblast by the specified deadline. On Polymarket, the probability that Ukraine re-enters either location by May 31 stands at 8.1%, while the probability of re-entry by March 31 is 0.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Institute for the Study of War map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for any persistent shading on the ISW map indicating Ukrainian territorial gains or claimed counteroffensives in these coordinates through May 31, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Ukraine territorial re-entry event on Polymarket. It displays the current implied probability of Ukraine re-entering Obratne or Temyrivka by the specified deadline, along with 24-hour volume of $100 and cumulative group volume of $64,571. The dashboard updates live pricing, historical price movements, and order-book depth to help traders monitor market sentiment and liquidity for this geopolitical outcome.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on military assessments, intelligence reports, and historical precedent. While analysts may emphasize tactical factors and supply-chain constraints, prediction markets incorporate broader information flows and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert opinion on Ukrainian territorial recovery timelines.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability of Ukraine re-entering either Obratne or Temyrivka before the deadline. The top outcome currently shows 45.5% implied probability. Traders buy and sell shares based on their conviction about Ukrainian military advances and territorial control. Price discovery occurs through continuous order matching, with volume concentration indicating where the market consensus lies on this specific geopolitical milestone.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Ukraine has re-entered and maintained control of either Obratne or Temyrivka by that date. The outcome is determined by verified reports of territorial status at the deadline. Traders should monitor official military announcements, independent verification sources, and geopolitical developments affecting Ukrainian offensive capability and Russian defensive posture in these specific locations.

Major catalysts include Ukrainian military offensives, changes in Western military aid delivery, Russian reinforcement or withdrawal from these sectors, and shifts in frontline momentum. Announcements of new weapons systems, NATO involvement escalation, or peace negotiations could sharply reprrice the market. Tactical reports on troop concentrations, supply lines, and casualty rates in the Donetsk region directly influence trader expectations. Seasonal weather patterns and winter conditions also affect combat operations and market pricing.