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Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by...?
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by...?

May 28, 2026, 3:41 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$91,226
Volume 24h:
$628
31,186%
Liquidity:
$965
45%
Open interest:
$865N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by December 31, 2026?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 25¢ buys you 400 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $400 | Net Profit: $300 Multiplier: 4.00x | ROI: 300% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 25¢No 83¢
8¢
$965
$3,128
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.543151° N, 35.368104° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.543151° N, 35.368104° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ukraine Kamianske re-entry market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume stands at $0, contributing to a total volume of $91,226 for this market. Traders on Polymarket are expressing their beliefs about whether Ukraine will regain control of Kamianske by the resolution date. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how these beliefs are evolving over time, offering insight into market sentiment surrounding this geopolitical event.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a relatively low probability of Ukraine re-entering Kamianske by the resolution date. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of possibilities depending on battlefield dynamics and resource allocation. While expert opinions offer valuable context, this market represents a collective assessment of probability based on real-money wagers. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information not readily captured in traditional forecasts, such as on-the-ground intelligence and insider knowledge.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price is determined by the forces of supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and evolving expectations. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the situation in Kamianske.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Ukraine has re-established full governmental and military control over the city of Kamianske. The outcome will be determined based on reports from reputable news sources, governmental statements, and independent verification of territorial control. The focus is on objective evidence of Ukrainian re-entry, rather than subjective interpretations of the situation.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military front lines, particularly gains or losses by either side in the Kamianske region, would likely cause substantial price movement. Significant changes in international aid or military support for Ukraine could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any official statements from Ukrainian or Russian authorities regarding the status of Kamianske, or broader strategic objectives, could act as catalysts. Unexpected escalations or de-escalations in the conflict could also drive volatility in this market.