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Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?

Jun 5, 2026, 5:52 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$116,731
Volume 24h:
$433N/A
Liquidity:
$343
87%
Open interest:
$391N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by December 31, 2026?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 21.9¢ buys you 457 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $457 | Net Profit: $357 Multiplier: 4.57x | ROI: 357% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
12%
8%
Yes 21.9¢No 98.9¢
20.8¢
$343
$1,014
3%
17%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ukraine re-entry market tracks the current odds that Ukraine will re-enter Hryshyne by the resolution date. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability of this outcome has changed over time, alongside the total volume traded—currently $116,731—and the 24-hour volume, which is $33. This allows you to see how market sentiment is evolving and how much activity there is surrounding this specific question. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of where traders stand on the likelihood of this event.

Currently, the implied probability from this market suggests a different outlook than some traditional analyst forecasts regarding Ukraine’s potential re-entry into Hryshyne. While expert opinions vary, the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket currently assigns a probability to the event. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a real-money view, meaning traders are putting their capital behind their beliefs, which can differ significantly from publicly stated opinions or polls. This market offers a unique perspective based on incentivized forecasting.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Ukraine will re-enter Hryshyne by the specified date. The price of these contracts directly reflects the market’s collective probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the event occurs, and conversely, the amount a seller receives for offering that contract. As more trades occur, the price adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Ukraine has demonstrably re-entered Hryshyne by that date, as determined by publicly available and verifiable information. The market will then settle, and winning contract holders will receive their payout based on the final market price at resolution. Traders should monitor news sources and official statements for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major developments in the ongoing conflict, such as shifts in territorial control or changes in military strategy, would likely have a substantial impact. Official statements from Ukrainian or Russian officials regarding Hryshyne could also move the market. Unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations in fighting would be key catalysts. Finally, any credible reports of troop movements or preparations for a potential re-entry operation could cause significant price fluctuations in this market.