Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Currently, prediction market participants assign a relatively low probability to a U.S. invasion of Venezuela. This contrasts with some public opinion polls that, while not directly addressing the timing of an invasion, show varying degrees of support for interventionist policies. It’s important to note that polls capture sentiment at a single point in time, while this market reflects a continuous assessment of probability based on available information and trader beliefs. The difference may stem from prediction markets' ability to aggregate diverse perspectives and incorporate new developments more rapidly than traditional polling methods.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the U.S. will invade Venezuela by Jan 1, 2027. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood of invasion, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, 'Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?', has a chance percentage of 3.9%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela, defined as the deployment of U.S. armed forces into Venezuelan territory with hostile intent, has occurred by the specified date. The market will close and shares will be settled based on this determination. The outcome will be assessed based on reports from reputable news organizations and governmental sources.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of shares in this market. A major escalation of political tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, such as a direct military confrontation or a significant violation of international law, would likely increase the probability of invasion. Conversely, successful diplomatic negotiations or a shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities could decrease it. Economic factors, like a collapse of the Venezuelan economy or a major oil supply disruption, could also play a role. Any credible reports of U.S. military preparations or deployments near Venezuela would also be closely watched by traders.