TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$143,200,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,735,575,990

484,453

Markets across

35,831

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,362

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?

Apr 20, 2026, 3:52 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$114,741
Volume 24h:
$494
1,217%
Liquidity:
$698
12%
Open interest:
$410N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?

25%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 25% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
25%
Yes 33¢No 84¢
17¢
$698
$1,021
14%
14%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Verkhnia Tersa capture market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing the town by the resolution date. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability has shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $123. The total volume traded on this market to date is $114,741. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity related to this geopolitical event. The dashboard updates continuously with the latest trading data.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a relatively low probability of Russia capturing Verkhnia Tersa. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of possibilities depending on battlefield conditions and strategic objectives. While analysts often rely on qualitative assessments and expert opinions, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are putting capital at risk. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the potential outcome of this conflict.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of Russia capturing Verkhnia Tersa. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in that outcome, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the situation.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether reliable sources confirm that Russia has established full military control over Verkhnia Tersa by the specified date. The market will then settle based on this verified information, with payouts distributed to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor news reports and official statements as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the situation on the ground.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Verkhnia Tersa, such as a large-scale offensive or a successful Ukrainian counterattack, would likely cause substantial price movements. Political developments, including changes in strategic objectives or international negotiations, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, reports of significant troop movements, supply chain disruptions, or key infrastructure damage could all contribute to volatility in this market until it resolves.