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Will Russia capture Sumy by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Jun 2, 2025, 7:46 PM EST - Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$872,524
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$18,891
21%
Open interest:
$69,294N/A

March 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

March 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Mar 31, 2027

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 3.9¢ buys you 2,564 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $2,564 | Net Profit: $2,464 Multiplier: 25.64x | ROI: 2,464% APY not meaningful 155 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 3.9¢No 98.3¢
2.2¢
$18,891
$449,371
0%
0.04%
N/A
5mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$381,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

December 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Russia will capture the city of Sumy, specifically the Sumy railroad station, by March 31, 2027. Currently, Polymarket gives a 6.5% probability to the outcome of Russia capturing Sumy by that date, as determined by shading on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). The market will resolve based on the ISW map, with potential fallback to DeepStateMap if the ISW map becomes unavailable. Keep an eye on the ISW daily updates leading up to the resolution date of April 1, 2027, to see if Russian control of the Sumy railroad station is indicated on the map.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket differs from many analyst forecasts regarding the conflict in Ukraine. While some analysts predict a prolonged stalemate, this market suggests a non-negligible chance of Russia capturing Sumy. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders, who may weigh different factors than traditional analysts. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market incorporates new information and adjusts its assessment of the likelihood of Russia achieving its objectives in the region. The market’s perspective is a valuable data point alongside traditional geopolitical analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, similar to a stock exchange. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether Russia will capture Sumy. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the market’s consensus probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices signifying a greater perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its assessment of the situation.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains definitive military control over the city of Sumy. This will be determined by assessing reports from reputable news organizations, governmental bodies, and independent observers. The focus will be on sustained control, not merely temporary incursions. The market will settle based on the prevailing situation as reported by these sources, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation on the ground, such as a large-scale Russian offensive or a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, would likely cause substantial price movement. Political developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russia’s strategic objectives, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like a negotiated ceasefire or a significant escalation of the conflict, would undoubtedly influence trader sentiment and the odds reflected in this market. Any credible reports of troop movements or strategic gains/losses will be closely watched.