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Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31, 2026?

May 1, 2026, 6:25 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$167,035
Volume 24h:
$351
54%
Liquidity:
$28,896
1%
Open interest:
$9,418N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% | APY: 112% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
76%
4%
Yes 77¢No 26¢
3¢
$27,064
$22,619
2%
5%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$1,832
$27,418
0%
17%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, as indicated by shading on the ISW Ukraine map. On Polymarket, the probability that Russia captures this location by December 31, 2025 stands at 79.5%, while the probability of capture by June 30, 2025 is 6.3%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for ISW map updates through the end of 2025 to track whether Russian control is established and persists through the next full daily update cycle.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...? event. It displays the current probability estimate for the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume. The event has generated $167,035 in total volume, with $351 traded in the last 24 hours. This data reflects live market sentiment from traders betting on whether Russia will capture Rai-Oleksandrivka within the specified timeframe, providing a dynamic gauge of community expectations around this geopolitical development.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect crowdsourced expectations from active traders, while traditional analyst forecasts rely on expert assessments of military capabilities, supply lines, and strategic positioning. Markets often incorporate real-time intelligence and breaking developments faster than published analyst reports. For the Rai-Oleksandrivka capture event, the market probability offers a probabilistic consensus that may diverge from individual analyst views depending on recent battlefield updates, diplomatic signals, and logistical assessments. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether traders are more optimistic or cautious than institutional experts.

On Polymarket, the Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? outcome is currently priced at 75.5%, reflecting trader belief in the probability of Russian capture by that date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined by continuous trading, where buyers and sellers negotiate the odds in real time. Higher trading volume and recent geopolitical developments can shift the price rapidly. Traders use this market to hedge exposure to the outcome or speculate on the likelihood of territorial gains, with the price serving as a transparent, market-derived probability estimate.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution depends on verified reports of whether Russia has captured Rai-Oleksandrivka by the specified deadline. Outcome determination typically relies on credible geopolitical sources, military intelligence reports, and official statements to confirm territorial control. The exact resolution criteria are established at market creation and applied consistently at settlement. Traders should monitor official announcements and reputable news sources as the deadline approaches to understand how the outcome will be adjudicated.

Key catalysts include major battlefield offensives, changes in military supply or reinforcement levels, diplomatic negotiations, and casualty reports affecting operational capacity. Announcements of new weapons systems, international sanctions, or shifts in allied support could alter the strategic calculus. Weather conditions and seasonal factors influence ground operations. Official statements from Russian or Ukrainian military leadership regarding territorial objectives carry significant weight. Intelligence leaks about troop movements or strategic plans may trigger sharp price swings. As the resolution date approaches, confirmed reports of territorial changes or stalled advances will increasingly dominate market pricing.