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Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Apr 30, 2026, 3:54 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$88,721
Volume 24h:
$74N/A
Liquidity:
$13,666
33%
Open interest:
$10,664N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 15¢ buys you 667 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $667 | Net Profit: $567 Multiplier: 6.67x | ROI: 567% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$11,707
$22,384
0.33%
0.35%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 98.8¢
1.7¢
$1,959
$49,126
0%
0.26%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as indicated by shading on the ISW Ukraine map. On Polymarket, the probability that Russia captures this location by December 31, 2026 stands at 36.5%, while the probability of capture by September 30, 2026 is 20.0%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for any persistent red shading on the ISW daily updates through the December 31, 2026 deadline, or announcements of negotiated settlements that establish Russian de jure control of the territory.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this geopolitical event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Russia will capture Prymorske by the deadline, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. You can monitor the top outcome price, 24-hour volume of $74, and total liquidity of $88,720. The dashboard also shows historical price movements, allowing you to see how market sentiment has shifted over time as new information emerges about military developments in the region.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders actively pricing this outcome, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on expert judgment and geopolitical modeling. Markets often incorporate breaking news and on-the-ground intelligence faster than traditional analysis cycles. Comparing Polymarket odds to published assessments from defense analysts, think tanks, and intelligence commentators can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimism or pessimism than expert consensus. Divergences may signal either market inefficiency or that traders have access to information analysts have not yet fully weighted.

On Polymarket, this event is priced at 14.0% for the top outcome, reflecting the probability traders assign to Russia capturing Prymorske by the deadline. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves in real time as new orders flow in; traders who believe the true probability is higher will buy shares, pushing the price up, while those skeptical of the outcome will sell. Polymarket's automated market maker ensures continuous liquidity, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at transparent prices throughout the market's lifetime.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Russia has captured and maintains control of Prymorske, a settlement in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, by that date. Outcome determination will be based on verified reports from credible sources documenting territorial control at the deadline. Traders should monitor official statements, military updates, and international news coverage as the resolution date approaches to understand how the event may be adjudicated.

Major catalysts include significant military advances or retreats near Prymorske, shifts in supply lines or weapons deliveries to either side, diplomatic developments or ceasefire negotiations, and changes in international support for Ukraine. Announcements regarding troop deployments, artillery capabilities, or strategic objectives in the Donetsk region will likely trigger sharp price movements. Seasonal factors affecting ground operations, casualty reports, and statements from military commanders or government officials can also influence trader sentiment. Any credible intelligence suggesting imminent capture or successful defense will move odds substantially.