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Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30, 2026?

Jul 14, 2026, 7:45 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$96,884
Volume 24h:
$1,267
5,401%
Liquidity:
$276
90%
Open interest:
$244N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by December 31?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 21¢ buys you 476 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $476 | Net Profit: $376 Multiplier: 4.76x | ROI: 376% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 21¢No 93¢
14¢
$276
$318
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Novodmytrivka capture market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this geopolitical event. The interface displays the current probability estimate alongside historical price movements, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as new developments emerge. You can view 24-hour volume and other key metrics to gauge market depth and participation. This dashboard consolidates all trading data from the venue into a single view, making it easy to follow how the market is pricing the likelihood of the specified outcome through the resolution date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with different information and incentives. While analysts may issue point estimates or qualitative assessments, this market reflects a continuous, dynamic consensus updated as new intelligence surfaces. Traders who profit from accurate predictions have strong motivation to incorporate credible reporting and expert analysis into their positions. Comparing the current odds to public statements from geopolitical analysts, military observers, and news organizations can reveal where the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the cumulative bets placed on each outcome, with buy and sell orders continuously adjusting the odds. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, improving execution quality. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, and the final price at resolution determines payouts for winning positions.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the specified territorial objective has been achieved by the deadline. Traders holding winning positions receive their payout once the outcome is finalized and the market settles. Until that date, positions remain open and prices may shift based on battlefield developments, diplomatic announcements, and other relevant news.

Major military developments—such as significant advances, retreats, or changes in supply lines—typically trigger sharp price movements in this market. Diplomatic announcements, ceasefire negotiations, or shifts in international support could also reshape trader expectations. Intelligence reports, satellite imagery analysis, and credible on-the-ground reporting from conflict zones often catalyze repricing. Seasonal factors, weather conditions affecting operations, and leadership statements may influence sentiment. Traders monitor these signals continuously, so any credible new information can cause rapid odds adjustments before the market resolves.