TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$143,200,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,735,575,990

484,453

Markets across

35,831

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,362

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?

Apr 20, 2026, 3:47 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$93,659
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$497
5%
Open interest:
$810N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
$497
$9,851
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png Intersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png Myropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png Intersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png Myropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Myropillia capture market tracks the current probabilities assigned to Russia capturing the city by the resolution date. You can view the implied probability of the 'yes' outcome, the total volume traded – currently $93,659 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to the potential capture of Myropillia. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the crowd is assessing the likelihood of this event occurring.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a relatively low chance of Russia capturing Myropillia. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which vary widely depending on their assessment of the ongoing conflict and Russia’s military capabilities. While some analysts predict continued Russian advances, others anticipate a prolonged stalemate or even a Ukrainian counteroffensive. It’s important to note that prediction markets reflect a collective intelligence, incorporating diverse perspectives and real-time information, potentially offering a different view than traditional expert opinions on this complex geopolitical situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Russia will capture Myropillia. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders on the platform, and the volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding this outcome. Higher volume generally suggests greater confidence in the market's assessment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Myropillia by the specified date, as determined through widely available and reliable sources. The market will then settle based on whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome is verified. Traders should monitor news and official statements from relevant authorities as the resolution date approaches to understand the evolving situation on the ground.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Myropillia, such as a large-scale offensive by either side, would likely cause substantial price movement. Significant geopolitical developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russian strategy, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements from key leaders or credible reports of battlefield gains or losses would also be key signals. Any indication of a potential ceasefire or peace negotiations could also dramatically alter the probabilities reflected in this market.