TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$124,291,538

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,192,009,184

337,556

Markets across

34,185

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,362

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31, 2026?

May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$78,373
Volume 24h:
$2,189
103%
Liquidity:
$54,596
2%
Open interest:
$26,585N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 81¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% | APY: 83% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
81%
Yes 81¢No 20¢
1¢
$48,814
$26,999
2%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
31%
6%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$5,782
$51,373
4%
6%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether Russian forces will secure complete control of Chasiv Yar, a municipality in Donetsk Oblast, by the end of 2024. On Polymarket, the probability of full Russian capture by December 31 stands at 73.0%, while capture by September 30 is priced at 54.0%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW Ukraine map, which must show the entire municipality shaded red indicating Russian control, with any change persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Watch for developments in Russian military operations in the Donetsk region through the end of 2024, as the pace of advance will determine whether Russia achieves complete municipal control before the December 31 deadline.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XPJfnzoeRtB7UEmDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability estimate for Russian capture of all of Chasiv Yar across multiple deadline scenarios, along with 24-hour trading volume of $2,015 and cumulative group volume of $78,373. The interface updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the market's evolving assessment of this geopolitical outcome. Historical price charts help users identify trends and sentiment shifts over time.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket represent crowdsourced probability estimates from thousands of traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. These differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on expert judgment and published assessments. Markets often incorporate real-time battlefield intelligence, military statements, and logistical constraints faster than formal analyst reports. Comparing Polymarket odds to published forecasts from defense analysts and geopolitical think tanks can reveal whether traders are pricing in information that mainstream analysis has not yet fully reflected regarding Russian operations around Chasiv Yar.

On Polymarket, the Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? outcome is currently priced at 80.5%, reflecting trader belief in the likelihood of Russian capture by that deadline. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy YES shares if they expect capture to occur and NO shares if they expect it to fail. The price discovery mechanism aggregates dispersed information about Russian military capability, Ukrainian defensive strength, and logistical constraints. As new developments emerge—battlefield reports, supply chain disruptions, or strategic shifts—the price adjusts to reflect updated market expectations.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Russian forces achieve complete control of all of Chasiv Yar by the specified deadline. The outcome is determined by verifiable evidence of territorial control, including military reports, satellite imagery, and on-the-ground confirmation. Chasiv Yar, a strategic city in Donetsk Oblast, has been a focal point of intense fighting. The market will settle YES if Russia captures the entire city before the deadline, and NO if Ukrainian forces retain any portion or if the city remains contested.

Key catalysts include major battlefield offensives, changes in Russian troop deployments, Ukrainian counterattacks, and shifts in military supply lines. Announcements of new weapons deliveries to Ukraine or Russian mobilization efforts can significantly impact odds. Diplomatic developments, ceasefire negotiations, or statements from NATO or Russian leadership may alter trader expectations. Real-time casualty reports, territorial gains or losses near Chasiv Yar, and assessments of Russian logistical capacity all influence market pricing. Winter weather, which historically affects military operations, and changes in international sanctions regimes could also move probabilities substantially.