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$150.1b

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$142,857,652

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2,859,322,643

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$1,733,278,615

483,990

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MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

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5

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
polymarket
predict

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 1, 2027?

Total volume:
$25,957,364
Volume 24h:
$2,186
6%
Liquidity:
$132,396
1%
Open interest:
$608,681N/A

December 31

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

4%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 4.5¢ buys you 2,222 shares | Odds: 4% Total Payout: $2,222 | Net Profit: $2,122 Multiplier: 22.22x | ROI: 2,122% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

December 31

Trade
4%
Yes 4.5¢No 97.1¢
1.6¢
$36,436
$862,495
0.02%
0.9%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.2¢No 96.9¢
0.1¢
$95,961
$2,620,697
0.08%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 3.9¢No 97¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.6¢
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,547,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,617,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,490,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,807,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,638,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

February 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$451,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$374,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran, physically entering Iranian territory by December 31st. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 3.3%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Predict, and will be resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting. Keep an eye on the political climate in Iran as the January 1st, 2027 resolution date estimate approaches, as shifts in the regime or public sentiment could significantly impact this outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same definition of a 'visit' and resolution source, ensuring consistent resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • A 'visit' requires physical entry into the terrestrial territory of Iran.
  • Entry into Iranian airspace or maritime territory does not constitute a 'visit'.
  • Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Border Disputes: If there are disputed border regions, the consensus of credible reporting will determine whether Reza Pahlavi physically entered territory internationally recognized as part of Iran.
  • Brief/Accidental Entry: A momentary or accidental crossing of the border, even if documented, will be evaluated based on the consensus of credible reporting to determine if it constitutes a 'visit'.
Timing: Markets will resolve upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming or denying Reza Pahlavi's physical entry into Iran before the specified date and time (11:59 PM ET).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the collective prediction of whether Reza Pahlavi will enter Iran before Jan 1, 2027. The current consensus view, aggregating data from both platforms, shows a combined volume of $25,957,364 with $2,186 traded in the last 24 hours. The Polymarket and Predict markets provide a weighted average of trader sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the probability of this event occurring. This allows for a broader understanding than any single platform could provide, reflecting a more comprehensive forecast for the Reza Pahlavi Iran entry market.

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their *true* beliefs through financial stakes. This can lead to more accurate forecasts, particularly in situations where individuals may be hesitant to express their views openly. The efficiency of information aggregation in this market can sometimes outperform polling data, as traders actively update their positions based on new information and insights. However, both methods provide valuable data points when assessing the likelihood of an event.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different demographic of traders with potentially varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding the political situation in Iran. Furthermore, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? at 3.1%, while Predict leans toward Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? at 3.7%, showcasing these differing perspectives within the broader prediction market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether credible sources confirm that Reza Pahlavi physically entered Iranian territory before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by a clear and unambiguous demonstration of his presence within Iran’s borders, as reported by reputable news organizations and verified through publicly available evidence. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Reza Pahlavi regarding his travel plans, or announcements from the Iranian government concerning his potential entry, would likely cause substantial movement. Major shifts in the political landscape within Iran, such as protests or changes in leadership, could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, credible reports of his movements towards the Iranian border, or any security-related incidents involving him, would be closely watched. These factors, combined with broader geopolitical developments, will shape the price action in this market until it resolves.