TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Who will the next Pope be?
kalshi

Who will the next Pope be?

Jul 18, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2070, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$146,225
Volume 24h:
$15
28%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$28,635
0%

Luis Antonio Tagle

 - Kalshi

Luis Antonio Tagle - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2070

Who will the next Pope be?

15%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 14¢ buys you 714 shares | Odds: 15% Total Payout: $714 | Net Profit: $614 Multiplier: 7.14x | ROI: 614% | APY: 5% 15772 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luis Antonio Tagle

Trade
15%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
N/A
$23,677
0%
0%
$6,410
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Pietro Parolin

Trade
6%
Yes 5.8¢No 96¢
1.8¢
N/A
$25,505
0%
0%
$5,061
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Trade
5%
Yes 4.5¢No 97¢
1.5¢
N/A
$20,131
0.01%
0.12%
$2,951
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Matteo Zuppi

Trade
4%
Yes 3.8¢No 97.6¢
1.4¢
N/A
$17,513
0.02%
0.02%
$3,418
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Anders Arborelius

Trade
4%
Yes 3.6¢No 98.5¢
2.1¢
N/A
$17,209
0.02%
0.02%
$4,222
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Peter Erdo

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 97.8¢
1.1¢
N/A
$22,860
0.01%
0.02%
$3,374
43y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Fridolin Ambongo

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 98¢
1.3¢
N/A
$19,329
0.02%
0.02%
$3,199
43y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 7

Description

A candidate is elected to a major religious leadership position before 2070.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate is the first to be elected Pope before January 1, 2070. Election occurs through the standard papal conclave process. The candidate must actually assume the papacy; announcement or nomination alone is insufficient. If no candidate listed is elected by the deadline, all markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the next Pope market dashboard tracks the current odds for each potential successor, represented as probabilities. You can also view the price history of each outcome, showing how trader sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $15, and the total volume traded to date, which is $146,225. This provides a clear picture of market activity and which candidates are attracting the most interest. The current frontrunner, according to Kalshi, has a chance of 15.0%.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different distribution of probabilities compared to traditional polling averages for the next Pope. While polls capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* on, which can reveal underlying beliefs and strategic considerations not always expressed in polls. Discrepancies can arise from factors like the anonymity of trading, the incentive to be accurate, and the ability to continuously update beliefs as new information emerges. It's important to remember that both polls and this market have limitations and offer distinct perspectives on the potential outcome.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2070, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the individual who is formally elected as the next Pope by the College of Cardinals. The resolution will be based on official announcements and widely accepted news sources. The process of papal election is complex, but the outcome of this market will align with the official declaration of the new pontiff. This timeframe allows for the completion of the papal conclave and the official announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any public statements or actions by potential candidates, even informal ones, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected health issues affecting key cardinals involved in the election process could also cause shifts in the odds. Major geopolitical events or controversies within the Catholic Church could also impact perceptions of different candidates. Additionally, any perceived endorsements or opposition from influential figures within the Vatican could trigger significant trading activity and price adjustments in this market.