TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Ted Cruz
- Kalshi
Ted Cruz - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
$
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of Jared Kushner announcing a campaign to contest the Republican presidential nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Currently, Kalshi gives an 84.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on whether Jared Kushner announces a presidential campaign before January 1, 2028, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should particularly watch for any official statements or campaign filings from Kushner leading up to the January 1, 2028 deadline, which is when this market is scheduled to resolve.
Kalshi
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tulsi Gabbard announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivek Ramaswamy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Rubio announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Glenn Youngkin announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikki Haley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sarah Huckabee Sanders announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greg Abbott announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Kemp announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Gaetz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Byron Donalds announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elise Stefanik announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rand Paul announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Katie Britt announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Thune announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tucker Carlson announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Steve Bannon announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marjorie Taylor Greene announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erika Kirk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Hegseth announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jared Kushner announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thomas Massie announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeff Bezos announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spencer Pratt announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John McEntee announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gregory Bovino announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen, which can incorporate more nuanced factors like candidate viability and fundraising potential. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the election cycle, as prediction markets can adjust more quickly to new information and changing dynamics. This market, like others, can provide a unique perspective on the race beyond simple name recognition or initial polling numbers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each candidate, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that candidate winning the nomination. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out $1 if the candidate wins the Republican nomination, and the implied probability is derived from this price.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the Republican National Convention, specifically the candidate who receives the majority of delegate votes on the first ballot. The process involves verifying the official announcement of the nominee through widely recognized news sources and election authorities. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding potential candidates – such as formal declarations of candidacy or withdrawals from the race – would likely cause shifts in the odds. Significant fundraising reports, early primary or caucus results, and endorsements from influential figures within the Republican party are also key catalysts. Unexpected events, like major political controversies or shifts in the national political landscape, could also trigger substantial movement in this market. Polling data, while not always directly correlated, can also influence trader behavior.
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