TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Total volume:
$9,679,914
Volume 24h:
$146,552
63%
Liquidity:
$76,294
43%
Open interest:
$3,240,158
0.98%

Ric Grenell

 - Kalshi

Ric Grenell - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 7, 2027

Will Ric Grenell leaves Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions in before 2027?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% | APY: 467% 72 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ric Grenell

Trade
67%
4%
Yes 71¢No 32¢
3¢
N/A
$3,156
1%
36%
$2,212
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Joe Gebbia

Trade
56%
Yes 55¢No 53¢
8¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Kristi Noem

Trade
49%
2%
Yes 76.9¢No 78.9¢
55.8¢
$842
$99,463
0%
0.07%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tilman Fertitta

Trade
38%
Yes 37¢No 71¢
8¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Susie Wiles

Trade
38%
1%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
N/A
$323,983
0.35%
10%
$113,273
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Susie Wiles

Trade
36%
2%
Yes 38¢No 66¢
4¢
$24,574
$66,406
0.08%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

Susie Wiles

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
37.7%
Yes 38¢No 64.5¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Kevin Hassett

Trade
34%
Yes 34¢No 74¢
8¢
N/A
$2,005
N/A
N/A
$3
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Amy Gleason

Trade
33%
2%
Yes 33¢No 70¢
3¢
N/A
$90,201
0.17%
0.36%
$13,395
2mo 1w 5d
active
limitless

Amy Gleason

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
33%
Yes 33¢No 70¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Pete Hegseth

Trade
29%
1%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
N/A
$1,330,611
0.62%
3%
$494,906
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Pete Hegseth

Trade
27%
2%
Yes 29¢No 75¢
4¢
$15,076
$141,601
0.16%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

Pete Hegseth

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28.8%
Yes 29.5¢No 73¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

Dan Scavino

Trade
29%
Yes 53¢No 95.9¢
48.9¢
$43
$137
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Doug Collins

Trade
28%
Yes 30¢No 72¢
2¢
N/A
$21,962
1%
3%
$7,707
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Markwayne Mullin

Trade
25%
Yes 35¢No 85¢
20¢
$115
$2,906
0.05%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Bill Pulte

Trade
24%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$58,580
0%
1%
$12,482
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Linda McMahon

Trade
21%
4%
Yes 21¢No 82¢
3¢
N/A
$24,464
0.31%
0.84%
$8,562
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Steve Witkoff

Trade
20%
3%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
N/A
$36,530
0.21%
1%
$11,077
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Howard Lutnick

Trade
19%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
N/A
$424,812
0.27%
1%
$99,622
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Howard Lutnick

Trade
16%
4%
Yes 18¢No 86¢
4¢
$12,274
$100,995
0.27%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

Howard Lutnick

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.4%
Yes 19.5¢No 83.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Brooke Rollins

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
N/A
$13,325
0%
0.48%
$4,437
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Scott Turner

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
N/A
$11,469
0.09%
0.19%
$3,017
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Kash Patel

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$1,304,668
0.12%
0.45%
$403,222
2mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.1%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 69

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of specific individuals leaving their positions within the Trump Administration before 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense before 2027 is 27.0%, while Doug Collins leaving as Secretary of Veterans Affairs holds a 26.0% probability. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, with resolution determined by official announcements and credible reporting as outlined in the resolution source. Keep an eye on January 7, 2027, as this date represents the end of the betting period and the final opportunity for an individual to trigger a “Yes” resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are role-specific, requiring departure from a defined position, while Polymarket markets are broader, resolving on any announcement of leaving the 'Trump Administration'.Hero tip: Focus on the likelihood of a specific role departure for Kalshi markets, and a general announcement of leaving the administration for Polymarket markets. Kalshi's definitions of 'leave' are more precise.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' based on an announcement of departure from the 'Trump Administration' by the end of 2026, regardless of the effective date. 'Trump Administration' is defined broadly.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the individual leaves a *specific* role (e.g., Secretary of Defense) before 2027. Includes detailed definitions of 'leave' covering death, temporary absences, and re-occupying the role.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Kalshi

Each official's contract resolves Yes if they cease holding their position before 2027 through resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means of vacating the role. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If an official vacates and then re-occupies the role, the contract settles on the initial vacation. Death while in office may result in resolution at the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion. If a role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to No.

Limitless

If Susie Wiles leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Susie Wiles must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Outcome verified from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the probability of individuals leaving the Trump Administration before Jan 7, 2027. The dashboard aggregates trading activity from both venues to provide a consensus view of potential departures. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $9,679,914, with $16,047 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time assessment of what traders believe is likely to happen, offering a unique perspective on the stability of the administration. The Polymarket and Kalshi data are combined to give a comprehensive view of the the Trump Administration departures market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects actual financial commitments. Traders put their money where their beliefs are, creating a strong incentive for accurate predictions. While polling can indicate public sentiment, this market can reveal what informed individuals believe is most likely to occur, potentially factoring in hidden information or strategic considerations not captured in surveys. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling data can sometimes be significant, offering valuable insight beyond simple opinion.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the specific markets offered on each platform can influence pricing. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? at 49.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Ric Grenell leaves Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions in before 2027? at 67.0%. These differences can also stem from varying interpretations of available information or differing risk appetites among traders on each platform. It’s common to observe temporary price discrepancies that eventually converge as information disseminates.

This market resolves around Jan 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on publicly available information regarding departures from the Trump Administration. The outcome will be determined by whether individuals have officially left their positions within the administration prior to the resolution date. Any ambiguity will be resolved by referencing widely accepted news sources and official government announcements. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential developments.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected resignations, firings, or announcements of departures would likely cause immediate shifts in probabilities. Major political developments, such as shifts in the administration’s agenda or internal conflicts, could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, media reports, legal investigations, or public scandals involving administration officials could all serve as catalysts for price movement. Monitoring news cycles and official announcements related to the Trump Administration is crucial for understanding potential market-moving events. Changes in the political landscape could dramatically alter the outlook for this market.