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Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
kalshi

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Oct 24, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2045, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$128,530
Volume 24h:
$1,808
16%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$47,721
2%

Gadi Eisenkot

 - Kalshi

Gadi Eisenkot - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2045

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 67¢ buys you 149 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $149 | Net Profit: $49 Multiplier: 1.49x | ROI: 49% | APY: 2% 6641 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gadi Eisenkot

Trade
67%
7%
Yes 67¢No 37¢
4¢
N/A
$15,322
5%
10%
$8,110
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Naftali Bennett

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 20¢No 85¢
5¢
N/A
$40,065
1%
2%
$8,635
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Avigdor Lieberman

Trade
11%
4%
Yes 18¢No 88¢
6¢
N/A
$7,811
4%
15%
$4,243
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Israel Katz

Trade
2%
Yes 5.6¢No 98¢
3.6¢
N/A
$17,216
0.17%
0.28%
$7,450
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Yariv Levin

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99.8¢
1.8¢
N/A
$8,177
0.39%
0.39%
$1,711
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Bezalel Smotrich

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$6,911
0.04%
0.04%
$2,484
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Yoav Gallant

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
N/A
$4,026
0.83%
0.83%
$1,761
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Benny Gantz

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
N/A
$4,530
0.64%
1%
$1,633
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Itamar Ben-Gvir

Trade
0%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
6¢
N/A
$12,704
0.23%
4%
$6,707
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Yair Lapid

Trade
0%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.8¢
1.7¢
N/A
$6,287
1%
1%
$2,483
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Yossi Cohen

Trade
0%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
N/A
$2,848
1%
1%
$1,449
18y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Yair Golan

Trade
0%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
N/A
$2,632
1%
1%
$1,055
18y 2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 12

Description

Following the issuance date, a new person will assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel, with the identity of that individual being tracked.

Kalshi

A candidate resolves to Yes if the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after market issuance is that candidate. Resolution is based on who actually assumes the office, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance—if the same person continues through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from Israel's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary confirmation source. The first person to assume office triggers resolution for all markets in the set.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages for the Israeli Prime Minister succession. While polls capture stated preferences, this market aggregates informed speculation, potentially incorporating factors polls miss – such as coalition dynamics or behind-the-scenes negotiations. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants; poll respondents may not have strong incentives to be accurate, while traders in this market have financial incentives to correctly forecast the outcome. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the likely next Prime Minister.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2045, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official announcement of the individual who is sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel. The platform will verify this information against widely recognized news sources and official government statements. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments within the ruling coalition, such as a vote of no confidence or a key party withdrawing support, would likely cause substantial shifts. Unexpected resignations of prominent political figures or significant changes in public opinion, as reflected in new polls, could also move the market. Furthermore, any major security incidents or geopolitical events could influence the political landscape and, consequently, the odds for each potential successor. Any formal announcements regarding potential candidates or coalition negotiations will also be key catalysts.