TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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10% or above
- Kalshi
10% or above - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 8, 2027
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?
$
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi share the same core resolution logic for determining whether a new trade deal has been agreed to, despite differing question phrasings.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of major US news outlets and official government announcementsCore resolution logic:
- A trade deal resolves as 'Yes' only if a free trade agreement becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Valid paths to becoming law include: Senate ratification + Presidential approval OR enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President
- Markets resolve based on consensus reporting from credible news sources about the agreement's legal enactment
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Pre-existing agreements: Deals that were already in force before January 1, 2023 would not count, even if modified during the period
- Partial agreements: Agreements that are announced but not formally enacted into law by the deadline will resolve as 'No'
- Tariff changes: Markets on Polymarket resolve based on agreement enactment, while the Kalshi EU tariff market resolves based on tariff rate thresholds — these represent separate markets with different resolution criteria
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate actually in effect and being collected on January 1, 2027, for imports from the European Union into the United States. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs targeting the EU. Only tariffs currently active and being collected qualify; announced, paused, or suspended tariffs do not count. The rate refers to the general baseline rate, excluding product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the total general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable rates. Different thresholds (10%, 20%, and 30%) determine market resolution, each requiring the cumulative rate to meet or exceed the specified percentage.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
