TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$143,200,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,735,575,990
484,453
Markets across
35,831
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,362
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Druzkhivka
- Polymarket
Druzkhivka - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
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This market tracks the probability of Russia entering specific Ukrainian cities by December 31, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 44.5% probability to Russia entering Druzkhivka by that date, while the probability of Russia entering Kramatorsk is estimated at 20%. Resolution will be based on territory control as indicated on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap used as a backup source if necessary. Keep an eye on the ISW map for any changes in control, as the market will resolve based on shading indicating Russian control persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle following December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments and scenarios, this market aggregates the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or risk appetites. If analysts predict a low probability of Russia entering a specific city, but this market shows higher odds, it suggests traders believe there are factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. This divergence can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Russia has established military control within the defined city limits of the cities listed in the market. The presence of Russian forces will be verified against credible public sources, such as reports from international organizations, news agencies, and governmental bodies. The focus is on demonstrable control, not simply temporary incursions or skirmishes, to ensure a clear and objective determination of the outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Jan 1, 2027. Major military offensives by either side, shifts in international diplomatic efforts, or significant changes in the political landscape within Russia or Ukraine are all potential catalysts. Unexpected announcements regarding ceasefires or peace negotiations could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, reports of substantial military aid packages being delivered to Ukraine, or internal instability within Russia, could influence trader sentiment and alter the odds. Monitoring these developments closely is crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.