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Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
polymarket

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Feb 23, 2026, 8:24 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$195,202
Volume 24h:
$142
87%
Liquidity:
$32,818
26%
Open interest:
$4,208N/A

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

 - Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?

15%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 15% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

Trade
15%
2%
Yes 18¢No 87.8¢
5.8¢
$426
$11,154
0.94%
11%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

Trade
15%
3%
Yes 20¢No 90¢
10¢
$251
$7,318
0%
0.89%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

Trade
15%
Yes 20.1¢No 90.8¢
10.9¢
$369
$63,636
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 18.5¢No 91.6¢
10.1¢
$306
$5,428
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Juan Pablo Ledezma

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$10,288
$2,672
1%
26%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$10,309
$60,477
0%
0.99%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Juan Reyes Mejía González

Trade
11%
Yes 13¢No 91¢
4¢
$10,870
$38,568
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Audias Flores-Silva

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the cartel leader arrest market dashboard provides a real-time view of trading activity and predictions. You'll find the current odds for various cartel leaders being arrested in 2026, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $275, and the total volume traded to date, which is $195,202. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and track which individuals are considered most likely to be apprehended.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights. While traditional analysts rely on intelligence gathering and geopolitical assessments, this market harnesses the wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market suggests a heightened probability of certain arrests compared to some publicly available analyst reports, which often focus on broader trends rather than specific individuals. However, it’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market reflects the collective judgment of traders, not necessarily a definitive prediction of future events.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a named cartel leader has been officially arrested by a recognized law enforcement agency and that arrest is widely reported by reputable news sources. The focus is on verifiable arrests, not merely indictments or rumors. The market will determine which leaders, if any, meet these criteria by the resolution date, establishing the winning outcome(s).

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major law enforcement operations targeting specific cartels, high-profile arrests of lower-ranking members, or shifts in geopolitical dynamics within the countries where these cartels operate could all influence trading activity. Unexpected changes in government policy regarding drug enforcement, or credible reports of internal power struggles within cartel organizations, could also cause shifts in the odds. Any news suggesting increased pressure on a particular leader, such as asset seizures or travel restrictions, would likely impact this market.