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630,408
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Kalshi:
51%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 04d:08h:41m
Will "Fast Charlie" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
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Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 movies chart for the week ending June 23, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update published on June 23, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, which reflects viewership data from the prior week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 US movies chart published at top10.netflix.com on June 23, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix officially ranks as #2 on its US Top 10 movies list in the update published June 23, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies
- Each named movie outcome is mutually exclusive; only one can resolve to Yes
- If a movie not explicitly listed on either platform ranks #2, Polymarket resolves to 'another movie' outcome; Kalshi's handling of unlisted movies is not specified
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Netflix update delay or failure: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if top10.netflix.com does not update by June 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume no resolution or platform discretion.
- Tie or co-ranking at #2: Netflix's official ranking methodology determines a single #2 position. If Netflix lists two movies tied at #2, the platform's published order or Netflix's own tiebreaker applies.
- Movie title variations: Polymarket specifies 'Ticket To Paradise (2022)' and 'GOAT' (uppercase); Kalshi lists 'Ticket to Paradise' and 'Goat'. Assume these refer to the same films; exact title matching to Netflix's official list is required.
- Unlisted movie ranks #2: Polymarket has an 'another movie' outcome for this scenario. Kalshi does not explicitly provide an outcome for movies not in its list; this creates a minor ambiguity in Kalshi's resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on June 23, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 update. If update does not occur by June 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi's fallback is unspecified.Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by June 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie rankings published on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, which reflect viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on June 22, 2026, one day before the chart publication. A market resolves to Yes if the specified movie achieves the #2 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one price outcomes through direct trader participation rather than analyst surveys, often capturing real-time sentiment shifts faster than traditional forecasts. While entertainment analysts rely on historical performance, marketing spend, and release timing, this market reflects what informed traders believe will actually happen based on early viewership signals and platform trends. The two approaches complement each other: analysts provide context and methodology, while market odds distill that information into a single probability that updates continuously as new data emerges.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under different market-making rules, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Kalshi may attract traders focused on regulatory-compliant US events, while Polymarket draws a global audience with varied risk appetites. Differences in order-book depth, fee structures, and settlement timelines can create temporary price gaps. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but if one platform has significantly less volume or slower price discovery, divergence may persist until capital flows equalize the odds across both venues.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once Netflix's official weekly rankings are published and verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on identifying which film holds the #2 position on Netflix's US movie chart for the specified week. Once the ranking is publicly available and independently confirmed, the market settles in favor of the correct title, and all positions are finalized accordingly.
Major catalysts include new movie releases competing for top positions, unexpected viral moments or social media momentum, celebrity news tied to featured films, and Netflix's promotional decisions. Early viewership data leaks or third-party tracking reports can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Weekend box office performance of films also in theatrical release may influence streaming rankings. Additionally, changes in Netflix's ranking algorithm or regional availability can alter outcomes. Traders monitor entertainment news, streaming analytics platforms, and social trends closely to anticipate ranking shifts before official results drop.
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