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Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced?
kalshi
opinion

Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced?

Total volume:
$10,273,021
Volume 24h:
$1,289,875
295,194%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$35,807
0%

December 31, 2026

 - Opinion

December 31, 2026 - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

December 31, 2026

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 5¢ buys you 2,000 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $2,000 | Net Profit: $1,900 Multiplier: 20.00x | ROI: 1,900% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

December 31, 2026

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$1,289,875
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,187
N/A
N/A
$6,293
Settled
No
opinion

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,850,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
opinion

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,057,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,505
N/A
N/A
$21,813
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,652
N/A
N/A
$7,701
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will announce his departure as President of Ukraine or actually leave office before October 1, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring by December 31, 2026 is 32.0%, with a 1.5% probability of him leaving before October 1, 2026. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Opinion, and will resolve based on whether Zelenskyy announces his intention to leave or actually leaves office, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the Ukrainian political landscape as the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2027 approaches, which marks the end of the betting period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms have differing resolution dates, creating uncertainty about when the market will be settled.Hero tip: Focus on the earlier resolution dates (March/April) as they offer quicker potential settlement. Be aware that the later dates on Kalshi introduce additional time for events to unfold and potentially impact the outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • kalshi: The market resolves 'Yes' if Zelenskyy announces departure or leaves office before April 1, 2026, July 1, 2026, or October 1, 2026. "If Volodymyr Zelenskyy has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Ukraine or has actually left as President of Ukraine before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
  • opinion: The market poses questions for March 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, implying these are the key dates for assessing the event. "Question: March 31, 2026"
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Resolution occurs if Zelenskyy officially announces his intention to leave as President or actually leaves office before the deadline. An official announcement requires a statement from Zelenskyy himself, an authorized representative, or the official governing body, reported by at least one Source Agency, and must not specify departure in more than a year from the statement date. Leaving office encompasses resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or duty delegation do not constitute leaving office. Death does not satisfy the criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer serving as President of Ukraine for any length of time between December 1, 2025, and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *bet* on, revealing true beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or inaccurate sampling, whereas the financial incentive in a prediction market encourages more honest and informed predictions. While polls may show public sentiment, the aggregated wisdom of traders in this market can provide a more accurate forecast of future events related to the Zelenskyy presidency.

Prices on Kalshi and Opinion can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base with varying information and perspectives, leading to differing levels of conviction. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume typically indicates greater confidence in the price. Kalshi and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can influence trading behavior. These differences contribute to the observed price discrepancies in the Zelenskyy departure market, even though both platforms address the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on official announcements from the Ukrainian government or other internationally recognized sources confirming Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s departure from the presidency, whether through resignation, removal from office, or other means. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and verified against credible sources, providing a transparent and objective determination of the market's result.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation in Ukraine, changes in political support for Zelenskyy domestically or internationally, or credible reports of health concerns could all move the odds. Unexpected political developments, such as a no-confidence vote or a constitutional crisis, would also be key catalysts. Any official statements regarding Zelenskyy’s future plans, even if ambiguous, could trigger substantial trading activity and price adjustments in this market.