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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
polymarket

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Mar 31, 2026, 5:53 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$29,593,935
Volume 24h:
$298
96%
Liquidity:
$115,645
52%
Open interest:
$354,284N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 3.3¢ buys you 3,030 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,030 | Net Profit: $2,930 Multiplier: 30.30x | ROI: 2,930% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 96.9¢
0.2¢
$115,645
$2,472,292
0.01%
0.22%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,542,829
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,501,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,163,934
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655,491
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192,305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Iranian uranium deal tracks the probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by a specific date. You’ll find the current odds reflected in the price, along with a history of how those odds have changed over time. The 24-hour trading volume currently stands at $286, while the total volume traded to date is $29,593,935. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding this geopolitical question. The current top outcome, as indicated by the price, has a chance of 3.2%.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different likelihood than many publicly available polls regarding the potential for the US to obtain Iranian enriched uranium. While polls often capture broader public opinion, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, based on their analysis of available information. It’s important to remember that polls measure stated beliefs, while this market incentivizes accurate forecasting. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives at play. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by prediction markets.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price adjustments. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the US government publicly announces that it has obtained Iranian enriched uranium, with verification from reputable news sources and government statements. The precise details of the enrichment level and method of acquisition will be considered, but the core question is whether the US has successfully obtained the material. This market provides a forward-looking assessment of this complex geopolitical situation.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any major developments in US-Iran negotiations, such as breakthroughs or breakdowns in talks, would likely cause price fluctuations. Public statements from key officials in both countries, particularly regarding uranium enrichment or potential agreements, would also be influential. Unexpected events, like inspections revealing undisclosed enrichment activities or shifts in regional alliances, could also drive trading activity. Finally, credible reports of covert operations or intelligence leaks related to Iranian uranium could dramatically move this market.