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$150.1b

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$142,857,652

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2,859,322,643

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$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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TX-23 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the TX-23 House election?

Total volume:
$665,930
Volume 24h:
$30,584
16%
Liquidity:
$276,692
10%
Open interest:
$379,088
6%

Republican Party

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 07d:18h:47m

Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 60¢No 42¢
2¢
$55,361
$76,886
4%
35%
N/A
1w 18h
active
predict

Republican Party

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 60.9¢No 43.3¢
4.2¢
$43,945
$8,054
0%
2%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
56%
2%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$416,050
5%
65%
$296,297
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
56.5%
Yes 59.3¢No 43.1¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 4.2¢
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
44%
Yes 44¢No 57¢
1¢
N/A
$108,389
8%
96%
$82,791
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
42%
1%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
$65,082
$56,347
3%
41%
N/A
1w 18h
active
predict

Democratic Party

Trade
41%
Yes 43.3¢No 60.6¢
3.9¢
$112,305
$205
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
43.1%
Yes 43.1¢No 58.9¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3.9¢
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas's 23rd congressional district. Markets ask which party or specific candidate will win the seat, resolving based on official election results or credible reporting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winning party of the TX-23 congressional district election, with the FEC as the tiebreaker.Primary resolution logic: Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate.
  • Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus.
  • The FEC is the final authority in cases of ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Independent Candidate: If a candidate runs as an independent without a clear party affiliation, they will be assigned the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus.
  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the FEC's official results will determine the winner and thus the resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called and the official results are reported by the Federal Election Commission, likely in November/December 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for TX-23 for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes for the Democratic Party outcome if a Democrat is sworn in, or to Yes for the Republican Party outcome if a Republican is sworn in. Markets are eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes in the TX-23 House election. It aggregates trading volume of over $665,930 with $30,032 traded in the last 24 hours, providing a consensus view of expectations. Currently, Polymarket shows a 59.0% probability for Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?, while Kalshi also indicates Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? is favored at 56.0%. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of how the prediction market is interpreting available information about the election.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often serve as a distinct signal compared to traditional polling data. While polls capture a snapshot of stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to differences, as market prices incorporate not only predicted outcomes but also perceptions of information quality and potential for unexpected events. Discrepancies between market probabilities and polls can sometimes indicate that traders believe polls are inaccurate or that unquantified factors will influence the election’s result.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery; a larger volume generally leads to a more efficient and accurate price. Differences in the fees charged by each platform can also affect trading behavior and, consequently, prices. Finally, differing risk appetites among traders on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities for the TX-23 House election. The winning candidate, as declared by these authorities, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results and confirmation of the election winner.

Several events could significantly shift the probabilities within this market. Major news developments related to the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected scandals, would likely have an impact. Changes in national political trends, economic indicators, or key endorsements could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates significantly from current expectations, could cause price adjustments. Finally, any unforeseen events that impact voter turnout or campaign dynamics could move this market before Jan 4, 2027.