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Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?
polymarket

Will Trump eliminate capital gains tax on crypto by end of 2025?

May 29, 2025, 5:52 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$114,720
Volume 24h:
$1,068
4,580%
Liquidity:
$9,853
0.92%
Open interest:
$8,038N/A

December 31, 2026

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2026 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 2.6¢ buys you 3,846 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,846 | Net Profit: $3,746 Multiplier: 38.46x | ROI: 3,746% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.5¢
0.1¢
$9,853
$30,460
0.03%
0.17%
N/A
4mo 6d
disputed
polymarket

December 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will sign legislation or issue an executive action eliminating capital gains tax on cryptocurrency assets for US taxpayers. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027—stands at 3.2%, while the probability of such action occurring specifically in 2025 is at 0.0%. Resolution will be determined by official US federal government sources and credible reporting consensus. Watch for legislative activity or executive orders before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the deadline for resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market. If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect traders' real-money bets and typically incorporate forward-looking expectations about policy implementation. Unlike polling averages, which measure current voter sentiment or approval, prediction markets price in the probability that Trump will actually execute this specific tax change by the deadline. Markets often diverge from polls because traders weigh legislative feasibility, congressional dynamics, and competing priorities. This event's market pricing suggests traders are assessing both political will and the practical pathway to eliminating capital gains taxation on digital assets.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Trump has officially eliminated the capital gains tax on cryptocurrency by that deadline. This could occur through executive action, legislative passage, or other formal policy mechanisms. The outcome will be determined by examining official government announcements, tax code changes, and regulatory filings to confirm whether the tax has been removed. Traders should monitor legislative calendars, executive branch activity, and official Treasury or IRS guidance as the deadline approaches.