TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?
kalshi

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Aug 3, 2026, 3:15 PM EST - Jan 7, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$119,142
Volume 24h:
$13,497
1,414%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$92,150
17%

Democratic sweep

 - Kalshi

Democratic sweep - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 7, 2027

Will Democrats win All 4?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 38¢ buys you 263 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $263 | Net Profit: $163 Multiplier: 2.63x | ROI: 163% APY not meaningful 72 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democratic sweep

Trade
37%
Yes 38¢No 64¢
2¢
N/A
$13,727
6%
73%
$7,898
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Alaska, Ohio

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
2¢
N/A
$13,556
1%
46%
$10,141
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Republican sweep

Trade
8%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
4¢
N/A
$11,853
7%
30%
$8,608
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Alaska, Ohio

Trade
7%
Yes 9.8¢No 93¢
2.8¢
N/A
$7,933
0.24%
7%
$7,273
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Alaska

Trade
6%
Yes 6.8¢No 93.5¢
0.3¢
N/A
$12,829
0%
26%
$8,820
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Alaska

Trade
6%
Yes 5.9¢No 94.9¢
0.8¢
N/A
$5,264
0.03%
16%
$4,549
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Alaska, Iowa, Ohio

Trade
6%
Yes 3.8¢No 97.2¢
1¢
N/A
$5,977
0%
15%
$1,552
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Ohio

Trade
6%
Yes 4.9¢No 98¢
2.9¢
N/A
$7,319
0%
283%
$6,638
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Iowa

Trade
5%
Yes 6.1¢No 100¢
6.1¢
N/A
$7,193
481%
481%
$6,828
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 4.5¢No 98.7¢
3.2¢
N/A
$2,055
0.56%
15%
$1,307
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Iowa, Ohio

Trade
4%
Yes 6.3¢No 99¢
5.3¢
N/A
$6,180
510%
578%
$5,954
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Iowa, Ohio

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.5¢
0.4¢
N/A
$5,637
8%
322%
$5,285
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Alaska, Iowa

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 98¢
0.9¢
N/A
$4,225
5%
9%
$3,706
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Texas, Ohio

Trade
3%
Yes 4.9¢No 97.5¢
2.4¢
N/A
$7,881
0%
300%
$6,696
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Iowa

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,174
0%
0%
$2,901
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Alaska, Iowa

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.8¢
0.2¢
N/A
$4,338
0%
3%
$3,994
2mo 1w 5d
active
Total markets: 16

Description

This set of markets tracks various potential outcomes in specific U.S. Senate races across Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio for the term beginning in 2027. Each market corresponds to a unique combination of party victories in these states, allowing participants to speculate on different scenarios of electoral success or failure for the Democratic Party in these key contests.

Kalshi

The event consists of sixteen mutually exclusive markets, each defined by a specific combination of party outcomes in four U.S. Senate races (Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio) for the term beginning in 2027. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the exact combination of Democratic or non-Democratic victories specified in its primary rule occurs across all four seats. Resolution is determined by the party of the candidate first sworn into office for each seat. An accelerated resolution mechanism applies if at least four of the eight designated media sources project the winners for all four seats before the official results are certified. Given the mutual exclusivity of the markets, only one can resolve to 'Yes', corresponding to the actual combination of outcomes; all others will resolve to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced view of voter sentiment and campaign dynamics. While analysts may lean on polls and historical trends, traders incorporate real-time developments, fundraising reports, and local media narratives. This can lead to divergence, especially in tight races where small events sway opinions quickly.

This market resolves around Jan 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of Democratic wins in tossup states will settle all positions, reflecting the actual election night counts and any certified results.