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Texas Senate margin of victory
kalshi

Texas Senate margin of victory

Apr 27, 2026, 9:03 PM EST - Nov 3, 2027, 11:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,217,766
Volume 24h:
$70,420
65%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$624,124
0.62%

Democrats, 1+ pts

 - Kalshi

Democrats, 1+ pts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?

62%chance
Amount

$

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Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 63¢ buys you 159 shares | Odds: 62% Total Payout: $159 | Net Profit: $59 Multiplier: 1.59x | ROI: 59% | APY: 57% 372 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democrats, 1+ pts

Trade
62%
3%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
N/A
$179,219
3%
36%
$82,313
1y 1w
active
kalshi

James Talarico, 2+ pts

Trade
52%
Yes 53¢No 48¢
1¢
N/A
$163,717
7%
146%
$87,124
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 3+ pts

Trade
41%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
N/A
$382,065
11%
58%
$191,126
1y 1w
active
kalshi

James Talarico, 4+ pts

Trade
30%
2%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
N/A
$76,550
3%
440%
$62,347
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 5+ pts

Trade
18%
4%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$184,896
1%
41%
$148,893
1y 1w
active
kalshi

James Talarico, 6+ pts

Trade
13%
2%
Yes 16¢No 87¢
3¢
N/A
$3,099
72%
N/A
$2,749
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 7+ pts

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$225,273
6%
24%
$46,960
1y 1w
active
kalshi

James Talarico, 9+ pts

Trade
5%
Yes 5.2¢No 97.5¢
2.7¢
N/A
$2,205
0.96%
N/A
$2,154
1y 1w
active
kalshi

James Talarico, 8+ pts

Trade
5%
3%
Yes 7.3¢No 94¢
1.3¢
N/A
$742
20%
N/A
$458
1y 1w
active
Total markets: 9

Description

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas will determine whether the opposing party wins with a narrow to moderate margin of victory.

Kalshi

The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party nominee minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind if Democrats win, or the leading candidate's percentage minus the Democratic nominee's if they lose. Votes for the Democratic Party across multiple party affiliations or duplicate listings are aggregated. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied. A margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range rather than 5-6%. If Democrats win, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the Democratic nominee is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating not just stated preferences but also expectations about turnout, late-breaking events, and strategic voting. Discrepancies can arise due to methodological differences, weighting, and the inherent uncertainty in predicting future behavior. It’s common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than polls, as traders continuously update their assessments based on evolving circumstances.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the overall sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price of a contract, the lower the implied probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the race, constantly updated by the actions of informed traders.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory reported by election authorities for the U.S. Senate election in Texas. The final result will be determined by the difference in votes received by the winning and losing candidates, as certified by the relevant election officials. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 3, 2027. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also impact the race. Changes in polling data, particularly if they indicate a significant shift in support for either candidate, would likely cause price adjustments. Finally, any unforeseen events—such as a major scandal or a significant endorsement—could introduce new volatility and move this market substantially.