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South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Senate election margin be?

Total volume:
$308,253
Volume 24h:
$70,931
72%
Liquidity:
$251,647
16%
Open interest:
$188,360
44%

Republicans, 1+ pts

 - Kalshi

Republicans, 1+ pts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% | APY: 33% 372 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republicans, 1+ pts

Trade
76%
Yes 75¢No 29¢
4¢
N/A
$8,864
3%
14%
$7,347
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Graham, 2+ pts

Trade
64%
9%
Yes 66¢No 38¢
4¢
N/A
$557
3,441%
N/A
$348
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 3+ pts

Trade
61%
Yes 59¢No 45¢
4¢
N/A
$18,411
13%
23%
$11,896
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Graham, 4+ pts

Trade
56%
6%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$23,203
521%
N/A
$22,685
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 5+ pts

Trade
46%
8%
Yes 46¢No 55¢
1¢
N/A
$95,655
40%
95%
$65,131
1y 1w
active
polymarket

Republican 0-5%

Trade
39%
5%
Yes 40¢No 62¢
2¢
$47,007
$28,210
3%
321%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Republican 5-10%

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 37¢No 65¢
2¢
$46,426
$13,929
7%
135%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Graham, 6+ pts

Trade
34%
8%
Yes 36¢No 67¢
3¢
N/A
$8,936
403%
N/A
$8,362
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 7+ pts

Trade
32%
5%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$46,957
19%
139%
$35,505
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Graham, 8+ pts

Trade
28%
Yes 26¢No 76¢
2¢
N/A
$5,125
7%
N/A
$3,023
1y 1w
active
polymarket

Democrat Wins

Trade
22%
Yes 23¢No 80¢
3¢
$33,963
$11,042
2%
318%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Republicans, 9+ pts

Trade
20%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
N/A
$20,490
11%
76%
$16,572
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 11+ pts

Trade
9%
6%
Yes 8.9¢No 92.9¢
1.8¢
N/A
$10,273
3%
9%
$9,418
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 15+ pts

Trade
7%
Yes 5.8¢No 97.7¢
3.5¢
N/A
$1,161
0%
135%
$845
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 13+ pts

Trade
5%
5%
Yes 6.8¢No 94.9¢
1.7¢
N/A
$6,650
2%
3%
$6,535
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 17+ pts

Trade
4%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.9¢
2.7¢
N/A
$419
0%
5%
$407
1y 1w
active
polymarket

Republican 10-15%

Trade
4%
3%
Yes 6.4¢No 99.2¢
5.6¢
$47,069
$2,788
23%
116%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Republicans, 19+ pts

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$359
0.28%
0.28%
$287
1y 1w
active
polymarket

Republican 15-20%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.8¢
1.5¢
$19,344
$1,481
0%
48%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Republican 20-25%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
$19,985
$1,099
5%
89%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Republican 25-30%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$19,173
$1,058
0%
62%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Republican 30%+

Trade
0%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$18,679
$1,586
0%
39%
N/A
1w 18h
active
Total markets: 22

Description

This group forecasts the margin of victory in the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. Markets focus on whether the Republican candidate will win by specific percentage point thresholds, and also include markets on a Democratic win or a win by an unlisted candidate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms diverge in their granularity of margin of victory predictions and the inclusion of a Democratic win market on Polymarket.Hero tip: Consider the differing granularities. Polymarket allows for more nuanced predictions within specific ranges, while Kalshi focuses on exceeding specific thresholds. Consider the potential for hedging across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets based on specific percentage point ranges (e.g., 20%-25%) and a separate market for a Democratic win. Resolution is based on official vote counts, with tie-breaking rules specified. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi presents a series of binary markets – 'Yes' if the Republican wins by a certain threshold (1%, 3%, 5%, etc.). Resolution is based on the official vote count. "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The Republican Party's victory margin in the South Carolina Senate race is measured in percentage points, calculated as the Republican vote share minus the runner-up's vote share. The margin is positive if Republicans win, negative if they lose, and zero if tied for first. For uncontested races where Republicans run unopposed, the margin is 100 percentage points. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound; for example, a margin of exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range, not the 5-6% range. If the Republican Party appears under multiple party labels, votes are aggregated to the underlying party. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the South Carolina Senate race from multiple platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, total volume across these platforms is $308,253, with $70,300 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of the probabilities for various outcomes, allowing users to see where the crowd is placing its bets. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book, while Kalshi uses a different mechanism to determine the odds. This provides a comprehensive look at expectations for the election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential events. Prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than polls, especially closer to the election date, as traders adjust their positions based on new developments. However, it's important to remember that both prediction markets and polls have their limitations and should be considered alongside other sources of information when evaluating the South Carolina Senate race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for a number of reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to different price discovery processes. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%? at 39.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 1 percentage points? at 76.0%. Differences in market design, such as fees or margin requirements, can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information and risk appetite among traders on each platform can cause the odds to vary.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory reported by verified sources following the South Carolina Senate election. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with their predictions after the election concludes. This market provides a way to assess the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the election’s outcome, and the resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2027. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected endorsements or scandals involving candidates could also cause substantial price movements. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions could also play a role, as these factors often impact Senate races. Polling data releases will likely be closely watched by traders, and any significant shifts in the polls could lead to adjustments in the market’s probabilities. Any news related to candidate fundraising or campaign strategy could also move this market.