TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Total volume:
$60,167,391
Volume 24h:
$4,609,093
172%
Liquidity:
$2,930,327
28%
Open interest:
$1,863,811
66%

Gadi Eizenkot

all

3 markets

Limitless

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election?: Gadi Eizenkot

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% | APY: 52% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

Gadi Eizenkot

Trade
59%
7%
Yes 58.8¢No 41.3¢
4.5¢
N/A
$1,641
0%
95%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Gadi Eizenkot

Trade
58%
2%
Yes 58.6¢No 43¢
1.6¢
$90,761
$4,158,560
10%
23%
N/A
17h 43m
active
kalshi

Gadi Eizenkot

Trade
56%
3%
Yes 56¢No 45¢
1¢
N/A
$432,176
120%
327%
$278,887
1y
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
57.6%
Yes 57.8¢No 43.1¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 4.5¢
polymarket

Benjamin Netanyahu

Trade
28%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$452,159
$14,242,579
19%
60%
N/A
17h 43m
active
limitless

Benjamin Netanyahu

Trade
28%
23%
Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢
1¢
N/A
$1,589
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Benjamin Netanyahu

Trade
26%
1%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
N/A
$1,648,212
56%
204%
$1,341,663
1y
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28.2%
Yes 27.8¢No 72.8¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

No one

Trade
18%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$36,029
N/A
N/A
$29,589
1y
active
polymarket

Naftali Bennett

Trade
8%
2%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$67,543
$4,419,955
5%
11%
N/A
17h 43m
active
kalshi

Naftali Bennett

Trade
8%
4%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$119,324
72%
115%
$77,545
1y
active
limitless

Naftali Bennett

Trade
8%
39%
Yes 7.8¢No 92.3¢
2.5¢
N/A
$3,289
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8%
Yes 8.6¢No 92.4¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2.5¢
kalshi

Yuli Edelstein

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$169
0%
0%
$119
1y
active
polymarket

Avigdor Lieberman

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 97.8¢
0.1¢
$77,248
$3,781,097
5%
12%
N/A
17h 43m
active
kalshi

Avigdor Lieberman

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$120,175
130%
182%
$109,654
1y
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.2%
Yes 2.7¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Yair Lapid

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,996
10%
10%
$1,974
1y
active
polymarket

Yair Lapid

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$90,861
$1,958,440
0.03%
0.9%
N/A
17h 43m
active
limitless

Yair Lapid

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Benny Gantz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,181
0%
0%
$2,152
1y
active
polymarket

Benny Gantz

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$65,154
$2,341,574
0.46%
2%
N/A
17h 43m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Ayelet Shaked

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,486
0%
0%
$1,486
1y
active
polymarket

Ayelet Shaked

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$251,150
$2,092,277
0.63%
1%
N/A
17h 43m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Yoaz Hendel

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,001
0%
0%
$1,001
1y
active
polymarket

Yoaz Hendel

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$180,213
$1,745,052
0.06%
3%
N/A
17h 43m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
limitless

Yair Golan

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50.1¢
99.9¢
N/A
$100
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Yair Golan

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$93
0%
0%
$93
1y
active
polymarket

Yair Golan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$169,211
$2,735,085
0.28%
3%
N/A
17h 43m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 17¢No 83.4¢
Avg: 50.4¢Max: 99.9¢
Total markets: 25 of 44

Intro

This market tracks the identity of the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, or any earlier election that may occur. Currently, the consensus probability that Gadi Eizenkot will become Prime Minister is 55.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, and will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel. The market will resolve to “Other” if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Keep an eye on the scheduled election date of October 27, 2026, as this will initiate the final resolution window for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on a per-candidate basis with an earlier deadline, while Polymarket has a single resolution for the next PM with a later deadline and an 'Other' option.Hero tip: Consider the differing resolution timelines and the possibility of multiple winners on Kalshi. The 'Other' option on Polymarket provides a hedge against unforeseen outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
  • Kalshi: Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the named individual becomes Prime Minister and meets all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. Multiple candidates could resolve 'Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A candidate resolves to Yes only if they are formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to Israel's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of parliament through an investiture vote or formal approval, exercising full powers of the office (not serving as caretaker or acting PM from the previous government). The appointment must result from the 2026 election's government formation process. Serving as caretaker pending formation, being designated to form government without completing constitutional requirements, leading the party with most seats without forming government, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do not satisfy resolution criteria. If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve No except "No one" if that option exists. If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. For rotating arrangements, the first person meeting all criteria resolves to Yes. If a candidate dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. Candidates not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Limitless

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Israeli Prime Minister market dashboard tracks the probability of various individuals becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next election. This is determined by the collective predictions of traders on both platforms, creating a consensus view of potential outcomes. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms exceeds $60,152,942, with $4,401,445 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in the Israeli political landscape. The dashboard provides a comprehensive overview of the short_topic, aggregating data from multiple sources to offer a holistic perspective.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a broader range of information, including polling data, political analysis, and even subtle signals like media coverage. The difference, or 1.8, between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can be insightful. It’s important to remember that neither is perfect, but they provide complementary views of the likely outcome of the next Israeli election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. These variations can lead to differing perceptions of risk and opportunity. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? at 57.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? at 56.0%. Additionally, differing trading fees and market-making strategies on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies. These differences are normal and reflect the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which individual is officially declared as the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next election. The process will rely on publicly available information from official sources, such as the Central Elections Committee and news agencies. The outcome will be determined by the official results of the election and subsequent government formation process, and will be verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as shifts in party alliances, unexpected candidate endorsements, or significant policy announcements, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting the key contenders, like scandals or health concerns, could lead to substantial shifts in the probabilities offered in this market. Economic conditions and geopolitical events could also indirectly affect the outcome and, therefore, the market.