TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Ottawa Mayoral?

Total volume:
$161,739
Volume 24h:
$38,280
4,022%
Liquidity:
$172,510
11%
Open interest:
$18,563
80%

Mark Sutcliffe

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 26, 2027

Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 0.93% Illiquid market 395 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mark Sutcliffe

Trade
99%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0.9¢
0.9¢
N/A
$21,134
67%
98%
$12,652
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Mark Sutcliffe

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
99.8%
Yes 100¢No 0.5¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
kalshi

Neil Saravanamuttoo

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,057
0%
0%
$618
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Neil Saravanamuttoo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$42,449
$7,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Alex Lawson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,023
22%
31%
$822
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Alex Lawson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$42,933
$19,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Catherine McKenney

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
0.9¢
N/A
$1,281
356%
356%
$1,259
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Catherine McKenney

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$43,451
$6,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
kalshi

Jeff Leiper

Trade
0%
9%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,144
82%
134%
$3,212
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Jeff Leiper

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$43,677
$26,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person L

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person P

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person T

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person X

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person AB

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person AF

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person N

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person R

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person V

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election. The markets consider various candidates and will resolve based on who officially becomes the next mayor of Ottawa.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms fundamentally agree that the market resolves to 'Yes' if one of the listed candidates wins the election, and both acknowledge a need for a resolution source and timeframe.Primary resolution logic: Official results reported by credible news sources and/or the City of Ottawa

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if Mark Sutcliffe, Jeff Leiper, Catherine McKenney, Alex Lawson, or Neil Saravanamuttoo wins the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election.
  • If no listed candidate wins, the Polymarket market will resolve to 'Other' by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and Kalshi will likely resolve to a similar outcome if no listed candidate wins.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the resolution will follow the official tie-breaking procedures established by the City of Ottawa.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets on that candidate will likely resolve to 'No', but the overall election market will remain open for the remaining candidates.
  • Delayed Election: If the election is delayed, the resolution date will be adjusted accordingly, but the resolution criteria will remain the same.
Timing: The market will resolve upon the official announcement of the election results by the City of Ottawa, or no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if no clear winner is declared.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Ottawa electoral authority. The winner is the candidate who wins according to Ottawa's electoral system and either is inaugurated and takes office or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the contract remains open until a re-run election or expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as it incorporates not just who people say they will vote for, but also their beliefs about the likelihood of different candidates winning. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sampling bias, and the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect present in prediction markets. It’s a valuable signal alongside, but not necessarily a direct substitute for, polling data.

This market resolves around Nov 26, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Ottawa mayoral election, as officially declared by the relevant electoral authorities, will determine the outcome. This market is designed to reflect real-world events, and the resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable information. Trading will cease once a clear winner is announced and confirmed by official sources.

Several factors could significantly shift the probabilities in this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, unexpected developments in candidate campaigns, and significant shifts in public opinion revealed through polling data could all impact trading activity. Debates and public appearances by the candidates will likely influence perceptions and, consequently, market prices. Any unforeseen events, such as a candidate withdrawing from the race or a major scandal emerging, would also be expected to cause substantial movement in this market.