TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Ohio Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Ohio Senate election?

Total volume:
$10,453,275
Volume 24h:
$194,999
18%
Liquidity:
$511,275
5%
Open interest:
$5,941,338
0.74%

Sherrod Brown (D)

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 16, 2026

Time left: 07d:18h:48m

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 71.5¢ buys you 140 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $140 | Net Profit: $40 Multiplier: 1.40x | ROI: 40% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Sherrod Brown (D)

Trade
69%
Yes 71.5¢No 32.9¢
4.4¢
$89,243
$1,373
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
69%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
1¢
$172,591
$1,071,702
6%
33%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
68%
Yes 68¢No 33¢
1¢
N/A
$4,336,440
2%
11%
$2,937,825
1mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.1%
Yes 69.5¢No 32.6¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 4.4¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
33%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
N/A
$4,263,502
1%
19%
$3,003,513
1mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$218,991
$766,207
3%
31%
N/A
1w 18h
active
predict

Jon Husted (R)

Trade
28%
1%
Yes 33.8¢No 76.8¢
10.6¢
$30,450
$14,051
25%
44%
N/A
1w 18h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
32.8%
Yes 32.9¢No 71.3¢
Avg: 4.2¢Max: 10.6¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate election, specifically whether the Democratic party will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict is 78.3% in favor of a Democratic win, with Republicans currently at 41%. Resolution will be based on the winner as determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). Keep an eye on the candidate debates scheduled throughout 2026, as these may significantly influence market sentiment leading up to the election and the resolution date of January 4, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving the market based on the winner of the 2026 Ohio Senate election, using the same primary resolution sources and handling of independent candidates.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate election.
  • The winner is determined by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus is reached, the official certification will be used.
  • Candidates running as independents are not considered part of the Democratic or Republican options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner.
  • Runoff Election: The market will resolve based on the winner of any runoff election that occurs.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets referencing that candidate will likely be cancelled or adjusted, depending on platform policy.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes if either a Republican or Democratic party representative assumes the office, with each party having a separate market outcome.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate prediction of who will win the Ohio Senate election. It combines trading volume of over $10,453,272 and 24-hour volume reaching $191,473 across both venues to give a consensus view. Currently, Polymarket shows Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? at 68.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio? at 68.0%. This allows for a more comprehensive understanding of expectations than any single platform could provide.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by biases or strategic responses, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be accurate. However, both sources of information can be valuable when assessing the likely result of the Ohio Senate election, and it’s common to see correlations between the two over time.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of available information. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders, resulting in more efficient pricing. Additionally, differing levels of volume on each platform can cause temporary discrepancies. These differences aren't necessarily contradictions, but rather reflect the independent assessment of probabilities by each market's participants.

This market resolves around Dec 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Ohio Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official election results as certified by the relevant authorities. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified outcome of the election. This market provides a way to forecast the election result and profit from accurate predictions.

Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, debates, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all shift perceptions and alter trading activity. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions could also influence the outcome. Polling data releases, while often already factored into prices, can still cause short-term volatility. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of either candidate winning the Ohio Senate election has the potential to move this market.