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Ohio Governor margin of victory
kalshi

Ohio Governor margin of victory

Apr 29, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2027, 11:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$128,895
Volume 24h:
$16,382
87%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$88,720
12%

Acton, 1+ pts

 - Kalshi

Acton, 1+ pts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Ohio be at least 1 percentage points?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% | APY: 24% 372 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Acton, 1+ pts

Trade
77%
Yes 80¢No 23¢
3¢
N/A
$15,075
0.69%
366%
$8,692
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 2+ pts

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
1¢
N/A
$1,337
38%
N/A
$1,187
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 3+ pts

Trade
61%
8%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
N/A
$40,654
7%
118%
$26,381
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 4+ pts

Trade
54%
4%
Yes 57¢No 45¢
2¢
N/A
$1,029
122%
N/A
$615
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 5+ pts

Trade
47%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
N/A
$5,151
10%
N/A
$4,097
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 6+ pts

Trade
37%
7%
Yes 40¢No 62¢
2¢
N/A
$36,451
9%
469%
$27,712
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 7+ pts

Trade
31%
7%
Yes 33¢No 69¢
2¢
N/A
$3,043
393%
N/A
$2,880
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 8+ pts

Trade
26%
4%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$3,016
191%
N/A
$2,126
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 9+ pts

Trade
14%
9%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
N/A
$13,896
24%
264%
$8,880
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 12+ pts

Trade
8%
4%
Yes 8.9¢No 93¢
1.9¢
N/A
$8,109
26%
1,241%
$5,017
1y 1w
active
kalshi

Acton, 15+ pts

Trade
7%
Yes 5.5¢No 95¢
0.5¢
N/A
$1,133
113%
N/A
$1,133
1y 1w
active
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Democrats will win Ohio's 2026 gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points, currently priced at 34.0%. A tighter Democratic victory of 6 percentage points or more is priced at 30.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official results of the 2026 gubernatorial election in Ohio. Watch the 2026 election day results on November 3, 2027, when the final margin will determine settlement.

Kalshi

The margin of victory in Ohio's 2026 gubernatorial election is determined by calculating the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind them if Democrats win, or the first-place finisher if Democrats lose. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied. For example, a margin of 5.99999% falls within the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party appears on multiple ballot lines, votes are aggregated. A positive margin indicates a Democratic victory, a negative margin indicates a Democratic loss, and zero indicates a tie for first place. In uncontested races where Democrats are the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment of the race than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific moment, while this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, pollster biases, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate performance, and economic indicators. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially offering a more dynamic view of the election outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Ohio Governor election. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will be. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the election approaches.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory reported by relevant election authorities for the Ohio Governor election. The final price of contracts on Kalshi will reflect the actual result, allowing traders to profit from correctly predicting the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final vote count and margin of victory to understand how this market settles.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2027. Major events like televised debates, significant campaign fundraising announcements, and unexpected endorsements could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, are also likely to cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting the candidates—such as scandals or health issues—could dramatically alter the perceived probabilities and move the market. Economic news and national political trends could also indirectly influence trading activity in this market.