TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Netanyahu out by...?
polymarket
opinion

Will Netanyahu step down as Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Total volume:
$124,783,975
Volume 24h:
$136,115
2,047%
Liquidity:
$95,752
7%
Open interest:
$432,254N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% | APY: 29% Low liquidity 246 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
71%
Yes 84¢No 43¢
27¢
$450
$201
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
68%
Yes 82¢No 47¢
29¢
$1,586
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
43%
Yes 44¢No 58¢
2¢
$93,715
$2,819,773
0.91%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

December 31

Trade
35%
Yes 34.6¢No 65.4¢
—
N/A
$110,197
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
43%
Yes 39.3¢No 61.7¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104,205,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,575,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,918,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

June 30

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

April 30

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Benjamin Netanyahu no longer serving as Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 52.5%, as aggregated from Polymarket and Opinion. Resolution will be determined by official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu and the Government of Israel, with credible news consensus used as a secondary source. Keep an eye on January 1, 2027, as this is the date by which a resolution will be determined based on whether Netanyahu remains in office.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Polymarket and Opinion platforms use identical binary resolution logic: YES if Netanyahu is out (or announces departure) by the specified date, NO if he remains in office. All date thresholds are clearly defined and mutually exclusive across the market set.Primary resolution logic: Official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu and the Government of Israel; credible news consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel at any time on or before the specified end date
  • An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date immediately resolves the market to YES, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect
  • Market resolves NO if Netanyahu remains in office through the end date with no announcement of departure
  • Resolution is binary with no partial or conditional outcomes

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announced but not-yet-effective departure: If Netanyahu announces resignation or removal before the end date but the effective date is after the end date, the market still resolves YES upon announcement
  • Temporary or acting replacement: Any cessation of Netanyahu as Prime Minister (including temporary removal) counts as YES; the market does not require permanent departure
  • Multiple end dates in same group: Each date threshold is independent; earlier dates resolve first. If Netanyahu exits before March 31, all subsequent date markets (April 30, May 31, etc.) also resolve YES
  • Source ambiguity: If official Israeli government sources and credible news consensus conflict, official sources take precedence; if both are absent, consensus of major credible outlets determines resolution
Timing: Each market resolves on its specified end date (March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, December 31) or immediately upon announcement of Netanyahu's departure, whichever occurs firstOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment around the possibility of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office. The Polymarket and Opinion markets are combined to provide a consensus view of this event, currently showing a combined volume of $124,783,975 and 24-hour volume of $23,853. The current price reflects what traders collectively believe about the likelihood of this happening, with Polymarket currently favoring Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? at 70.5%, while Opinion leans toward December 31 at 34.6%. This allows for a comprehensive view of the the Netanyahu resignation market.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls measure stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be a more accurate signal of actual expectations. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or inaccurate sampling, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to express their genuine beliefs. While not always perfectly correlated, the price action in this market can provide valuable insight beyond what traditional polls reveal about the future of Israeli politics and the likelihood of a change in leadership.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, which can lead to differing price discovery. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, the specific market structures and available outcomes on each platform can influence trading behavior. For instance, different settlement conditions or the inclusion of more granular outcomes could contribute to price discrepancies. The spread between the two platforms is currently 35.9, reflecting these varying perspectives on the Netanyahu resignation market.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Benjamin Netanyahu has officially resigned from his position as Prime Minister of Israel, or is otherwise removed from office through a formal process, before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by widely accepted and publicly available information, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments within Israel, such as a no-confidence vote, significant shifts in coalition support, or formal investigations into Netanyahu’s conduct, would likely cause price fluctuations. International pressure or geopolitical events could also play a role. Unexpected economic shocks or changes in public opinion, as reflected in polling data, could also influence traders’ assessments. Any credible news suggesting an imminent change in leadership would likely lead to substantial movement in this market.