TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion
kalshi
polymarket

NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion

Total volume:
$5,833,075
Volume 24h:
$42,784
55%
Liquidity:
$112,569
7%
Open interest:
$3,374,884
0.19%

Kyle Larson

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 22, 2026

Time left: 19d:04h:46m

Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% High Projected APY: 1,351% 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kyle Larson

Trade
87%
2%
Yes 87¢No 15¢
2¢
N/A
$522,401
2%
7%
$240,122
2w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

Kyle Larson

Trade
85%
5%
Yes 87.5¢No 16.7¢
4.2¢
$2,951
$6,178
7%
21%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
87%
Yes 87.3¢No 15.9¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 4.2¢
polymarket

Denny Hamlin

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 7.9¢No 97.1¢
5¢
$5,905
$25,446
0.05%
3%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$725,434
1%
5%
$303,816
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 7¢No 96.6¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Joey Logano

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$415,715
0.56%
8%
$214,471
2w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

Joey Logano

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.8¢
3.6¢
$4,709
$3,544
0%
9%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.6¢
kalshi

Christopher Bell

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$363,286
0.46%
8%
$222,589
2w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

Christopher Bell

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 1.2¢No 99¢
0.2¢
$6,635
$3,347
0%
27%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Tyler Reddick

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.9¢No 99¢
3.9¢
$6,911
$6,941
0%
9%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Tyler Reddick

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$565,041
0.16%
1%
$265,924
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 3¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3.9¢
polymarket

Carson Hocevar

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.5¢No 99.3¢
2.8¢
$10,142
$2,138
0%
33%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Carson Hocevar

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$310,067
0%
0.89%
$160,358
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 2.8¢
polymarket

Bubba Wallace

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.2¢
1.8¢
$10,986
$2,244
0%
77%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$233,655
0%
0.13%
$138,383
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

Ryan Blaney

Trade
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.7¢
1.8¢
$9,929
$12,965
0%
9%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$465,342
2%
6%
$246,634
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

Chase Briscoe

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4¢No 99.6¢
3.6¢
$6,019
$1,359
0%
62%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$337,969
0.28%
4%
$185,673
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 3¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.6¢
polymarket

Chase Elliott

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.8¢
1.7¢
$8,777
$722
0%
58%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
kalshi

Chase Elliott

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$302,793
0.08%
0.29%
$173,837
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.7¢
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$253,005
0%
0%
$162,938
2w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

Ty Gibbs

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$6,522
$753
0%
6%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

William Byron

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$263,606
0%
1%
$158,682
2w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

William Byron

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$7,219
$839
18%
62%
N/A
1w 5d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Chris Buescher

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$122,909
0%
0.87%
$95,545
2w 5d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 72

Description

This group of markets predicts which driver will win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship. Markets resolve based on the official NASCAR results for the final race of the season.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms resolve based on the same core criterion: the listed driver must win the official 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship as determined by NASCAR.Primary resolution logic: Official NASCAR results and standings

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to Yes if the listed driver is officially declared the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion
  • Market resolves to No if the driver is mathematically eliminated from championship contention before the season ends
  • For Polymarket, if the season is canceled before completion, markets resolve to Other

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tiebreaker: If multiple drivers tie for first in points, NASCAR's official tiebreak procedure will determine the champion, which resolves the markets
  • Season Cancellation: Polymarket markets resolve to Other if the season is permanently canceled before completion; Kalshi markets would likely resolve based on remaining possible outcomes
Timing: Markets resolve immediately after the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are announcedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASCAR.

Kalshi

If Kyle Larson wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Denny Hamlin wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If William Byron wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Christopher Bell wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Blaney wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chase Elliott wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chase Briscoe wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tyler Reddick wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joey Logano wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Connor Zilisch wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ross Chastain wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Buescher wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bubba Wallace wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Bowman wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyle Busch wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Berry wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Carson Hocevar wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ty Gibbs wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brad Keselowski wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austin Cindric wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Preece wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erik Jones wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daniel Suarez wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austin Dillon wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zane Smith wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ty Dillon wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Hunter Nemechek wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cole Custer wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cody Ware wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship market aggregates activity across platforms, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It displays how traders on multiple venues price the likelihood of different drivers winning the title. You can see total volume of $5,833,075 and 24-hour volume of $40,117, plus a consensus view that reflects the current market sentiment toward Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion? and other top contenders.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect crowd-sourced sentiment and can adjust faster to new information. On Polymarket, this market prices in a way that captures trader expectations about driver performance, injuries, and team changes throughout the season. The spread between prediction market odds and sportsbook lines is typically around 1.6, driven by factors like market liquidity and public interest. Traders should watch both sources to spot potential value shifts.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, trading volume, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more professional traders who bet on statistical models, while the other could see heavier retail participation that swings prices based on popular narratives. These dynamics create temporary mispricings that sharp traders can exploit. The gap between Polymarket's 85.4% chance and Kalshi's 87.0% chance shows how each market interprets new data.

This market resolves around Nov 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The champion is determined by official NASCAR results at the end of the 2026 season, and once those results are publicly confirmed, all platforms will settle to the correct driver. Timing depends on when official sources announce and verify the final standings.

Key signals that could shift this market include driver injuries, team announcements, changes in crew chief assignments, and major performance swings during early 2026 races. Any surprise retirement or regulatory decision affecting a top contender would also reshape trader sentiment. Additionally, betting patterns on Polymarket and Kalshi often anticipate these developments, so watch for sudden chance shifts around major race weekends or offseason news cycles.