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$1,733,278,615

483,990

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3,349

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5

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MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB AL Rookie of the Year?

Total volume:
$3,794,857
Volume 24h:
$6,226
11,368%
Liquidity:
$166,293
10%
Open interest:
$1,508,089
0.06%

Kevin McGonigle

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 26% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kevin McGonigle

Trade
97%
2%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$392,775
0.29%
0.53%
$206,490
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Kevin McGonigle

Trade
96%
2%
Yes 97.7¢No 5.5¢
3.2¢
$4,274
$71,472
2%
3%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.9%
Yes 96.9¢No 5.3¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 3.2¢
kalshi

Lazaro Montes

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Hagen Smith

Trade
3%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

A

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.6¢
1.7¢
$7,781
$10,649
0.11%
0.11%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Parker Messick

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$253,041
1%
2%
$189,696
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Walbert Ureña

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$37,685
0%
0%
$35,957
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Gage Jump

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$28,664
0%
0%
$26,618
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Braden Montgomery

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$19,232
0%
0%
$18,948
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

George Lombard Jr.

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$17,906
0%
0%
$17,906
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Noah Schultz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$17,784
0%
0%
$16,499
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Sam Antonacci

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,916
0%
0%
$8,916
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Emmanuel Rodriguez

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,226
0%
0%
$3,758
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tie/Co-Winners

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,780
0%
0%
$3,618
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Colt Emerson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$162,440
0%
0%
$134,810
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Colt Emerson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,406
$2,546
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Samuel Basallo

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$92,649
0%
0%
$62,104
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Samuel Basallo

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,152
$2,450
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Chase DeLauter

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$185,998
0%
0%
$132,545
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Chase DeLauter

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$6,414
$5,394
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Tatsuya Imai

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$25,579
0%
0%
$23,531
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Tatsuya Imai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,791
$833
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$365,007
0%
0.01%
$224,530
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Munetaka Murakami

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.6¢
0.8¢
$2,743
$64,039
0%
0.01%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Trey Yesavage

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$72,258
0%
0%
$56,124
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 55

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Kevin McGonigle winning the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award, as determined by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket gives McGonigle a 91.0% chance of winning, while A has an 8.5% chance. This prediction market consolidates data from multiple sources, and will resolve based on the official BBWAA award announcement. Keep an eye on the official award announcement scheduled for early January 2027, as that will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists a comprehensive set of players, while Polymarket includes individual players and a catch-all 'someone else' option, creating SKU risk and differing scope.Hero tip: Consider hedging your positions with the 'someone else' market on Polymarket if you believe a player not listed on Kalshi has a significant chance of winning. Be mindful of the alphabetical tiebreaker on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to YES if the listed player wins, or if there's a tie based on alphabetical order of last names. Includes a 'someone else' option and markets for players starting with letters.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to YES if any of the 30 listed players win the AL Rookie of the Year award. No 'someone else' option is available.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified players wins the American League Rookie of the Year award in the 2026 season. Eligible candidates include Trey Yesavage, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai, Kevin McGonigle, Carter Jensen, Samuel Basallo, Connelly Early, Chase DeLauter, Walker Jenkins, Travis Bazzana, Colt Emerson, Payton Tolle, Brice Matthews, Spencer Jones Jr., Lazaro Montes, Josue Briceño, Carson Williams, Max Clark, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, George Lombard Jr., Braden Montgomery, Sebastian Walcott, and Gage Jump. The market also resolves to Yes if the award results in a tie or co-winners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate trading activity for the AL Rookie of the Year market, providing a consensus view of who is most likely to win. Currently, the total volume across both platforms exceeds $3,794,857, with $5,191 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see where the crowd stands and compare probabilities across different platforms. The dashboard displays the implied probabilities for various candidates, reflecting the collective predictions of market participants. It offers a comprehensive overview of the market’s sentiment and activity.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how each is determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by the wisdom of the crowd, where participants directly express their beliefs about the outcome by trading. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. The 0.9 difference between prediction market and sportsbook odds can sometimes signal opportunities for arbitrage or highlight differing perspectives on the likely winner.

Prices for the AL Rookie of the Year market can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role, as lower volume can result in wider bid-ask spreads and price fluctuations. Furthermore, the specific market design and trading mechanisms on each platform can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? at 96.1%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY? at 97.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the AL Rookie of the Year award, as officially announced by Major League Baseball, will determine the outcome. The market will settle based on the official results released by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official MLB announcements for the final determination of the award recipient, which will trigger settlement of this market.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Jan 1, 2027. Player performance is a primary driver, with strong or weak performances significantly impacting perceived probabilities. Injuries to key contenders could also dramatically shift the market, as could significant changes in playing time or team roles. News regarding player development, scouting reports, or managerial decisions can also move the market. Additionally, any major media coverage or public sentiment shifts surrounding potential candidates could influence trading behavior and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.