TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB NL Cy Young?

Total volume:
$4,491,640
Volume 24h:
$594
600%
Liquidity:
$114,513
3%
Open interest:
$2,150,558
0%

Jacob Misiorowski

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Jacob Misiorowski

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2.9¢
1.9¢
$3,037
$36,327
0.03%
0.97%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Jacob Misiorowski

Trade
97%
1%
Yes 99¢No 3¢
2¢
N/A
$541,540
0.07%
0.43%
$217,096
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
97.1%
Yes 99¢No 3¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.6¢
1.6¢
$6,775
$14,160
0%
0.63%
N/A
2w 1d 13h
active
kalshi

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$205,697
0%
0.1%
$133,965
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 1.6¢
kalshi

Roki Sasaki

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,560
0%
0%
$7,560
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Chase Burns

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$154,113
0%
2%
$108,126
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Sandy Alcantara

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$50,427
0%
0%
$45,654
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Kyle Harrison

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$49,910
0%
0%
$40,642
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Bryce Elder

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$38,548
0%
0%
$38,528
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Shota Imanaga

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$35,415
0%
0%
$31,274
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Cade Horton

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$25,462
0%
0%
$20,080
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Edward Cabrera

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$16,809
0%
0%
$16,421
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Kodai Senga

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$11,394
0%
0%
$11,364
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Bubba Chandler

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,840
0%
0%
$5,840
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Andrew Abbott

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,675
0%
32%
$4,675
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Robbie Ray

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,028
0%
0%
$4,028
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tie/Co-Winners

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,855
0%
0%
$2,855
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Matthew Boyd

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,936
0%
0%
$1,936
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Aaron Nola

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$586
9%
19%
$586
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Hurston Waldrep

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$492
0%
0%
$492
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Jhoan Duran

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$167
0%
0%
$167
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Quinn Priester

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$103
0%
0%
$103
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

David Peterson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
$4
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Sean Manaea

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Merrill Kelly

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 25 of 70

Intro

This market tracks which pitcher will win the National League Cy Young Award in the 2026 Major League Baseball season, as determined by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Currently, the consensus probability favors Jacob Misiorowski to win, at 98.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether Yoshinobu Yamamoto wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season. Cristopher Sanchez currently holds the second-highest probability at 2.0%. Keep an eye on the official Cy Young Award announcement, expected around January 1, 2027, to see if Misiorowski secures the honor.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists a comprehensive set of potential winners, while Polymarket focuses on a smaller set and includes an 'Other' option, creating SKU risk.Hero tip: Consider the potential for an unlisted player to win when trading on Kalshi. Polymarket's 'Other' option offers a hedge against this scenario.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the player who wins the 2026 NL Cy Young Award, or 'Other' if the season is cancelled or no winner is declared. Tiebreakers are determined alphabetically by last name.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if any of the listed players win the award. A very large number of players are listed, increasing the probability of a 'Yes' outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified pitchers wins the National League Cy Young Award in the 2026 season. Eligible candidates include Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sanchez, Hunter Greene, Chris Sale, Blake Snell, Freddy Peralta, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Spencer Schwellenbach, Tyler Glasnow, Jesus Luzardo, Nick Pivetta, Nolan McLean, Eury Perez, Nick Lodolo, Shohei Ohtani, Chase Burns, Sandy Alcantara, Andrew Abbott, Edward Cabrera, Roki Sasaki, Shota Imanaga, Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola, Bubba Chandler, Cade Horton, Hurston Waldrep, Jared Jones, Kodai Senga, Mason Miller, Matthew Boyd, Mitch Keller, Quinn Priester, Robbie Ray, Jhoan Duran, Brady Singer, David Peterson, Merrill Kelly, Sean Manaea, Bryce Elder, and Kyle Harrison. The market also resolves to Yes if the award results in a tie or co-winners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various pitchers winning the 2026 NL Cy Young Award, aggregating data from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $4,491,640, with $733 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in the potential candidates. The dashboard visualizes the implied probabilities, allowing users to see which pitchers are favored and how the market is evolving. The current consensus suggests Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? is the frontrunner, though opinions differ slightly between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the mechanisms behind price discovery. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and perceived public bias, while prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, particularly as the event approaches and more information becomes available. The 1.0 difference between this market and sportsbook odds can indicate where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers. Both offer valuable insights, but prediction markets incentivize more honest probability assessments.

Prices for the 2026 NL Cy Young market may vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific rules and fee structures on each platform can create slight discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket favors Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? at 98.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young? at 97.0%. These differences highlight the independent nature of each market and the diverse perspectives of their traders.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the 2026 NL Cy Young Award is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official announcement by Major League Baseball will serve as the determining factor. Trading will cease once the award is announced, and the market will settle to 100% for the winning pitcher. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available information, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.

Numerous events could significantly impact the probabilities within this market. Pitcher performance throughout the 2025 and 2026 MLB seasons will be a primary driver, with strong starts and dominant performances increasing a player's chances. Injuries to key contenders will also have a substantial effect, shifting probabilities towards other potential candidates. Trades between teams could alter a pitcher's opportunity and thus their outlook. Finally, any news regarding rule changes or potential changes to voting criteria for the Cy Young Award could also influence trading activity in this market.