TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB AL Cy Young?

Total volume:
$4,235,239
Volume 24h:
$289
87%
Liquidity:
$101,297
3%
Open interest:
$2,046,333
0.01%

Cam Schlittler

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% Illiquid market 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cam Schlittler

Trade
99%
1%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$551,003
0.05%
2%
$239,434
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Cam Schlittler

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 1.5¢
0.5¢
$5,833
$80,999
0%
0.08%
N/A
2w 1d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
99%
Yes 99.5¢No 1.3¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Luis Gil

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Sonny Gray

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$277,472
0%
0%
$186,933
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Drew Rasmussen

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$146,654
0%
0.06%
$98,535
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Trevor Rogers

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$47,989
0%
0%
$41,557
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Shane McClanahan

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,033
0%
0%
$35,162
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Kris Bubic

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,049
0%
0%
$8,049
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Michael Wacha

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,730
0%
0%
$7,630
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Casey Mize

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,386
0%
0%
$2,386
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Luis Castillo

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,011
0%
0%
$2,011
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tie/Co-Winners

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,515
0%
0%
$1,515
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Grayson Rodriguez

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,467
0%
0%
$1,467
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Aroldis Chapman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,202
0%
0%
$1,202
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Brayan Bello

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$194
0%
0%
$194
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tanner Bibee

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$91
0%
0%
$91
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Yusei Kikuchi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$24
0%
0%
$24
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Shane Bieber

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Trey Yesavage

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$53,929
0%
0%
$53,892
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Jack Flaherty

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,219
0%
0%
$3,219
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Bryce Miller

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$65,219
0%
0%
$60,348
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Bryce Miller

Trade
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,965
$1,098
0%
0%
N/A
2w 1d 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Ranger Suarez

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$75,536
0%
0%
$74,880
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ranger Suarez

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,246
$602
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Gerrit Cole

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$69,894
0%
0%
$66,806
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 69

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Will Cam Schlittler winning the 2026 American League Cy Young Award, an honor recognizing the league’s best pitcher as voted on by baseball writers. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 97.8% chance of Schlittler winning. This market resolves based on whether Yusei Kikuchi wins the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season. Keep an eye on the official announcement of the Cy Young Award winner, expected around January 1, 2027, to see how this market resolves.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists many individual players as potential winners, plus a 'Tie/Co-Winners' outcome, while Polymarket focuses on individual players with a tiebreaker rule. This creates SKU risk as a player not listed on Kalshi cannot win.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi's 'Tie/Co-Winners' option and broader player list may result in different probabilities compared to Polymarket's individual player markets. Consider the likelihood of a tie when evaluating these markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to a single player winning the award, with a tiebreaker based on alphabetical order of last names. Includes a cancellation clause if the season is cancelled or postponed.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to any of a long list of individual players, or to 'Tie/Co-Winners'. No tiebreaker rule is specified. No explicit cancellation clause beyond the general Kalshi terms.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified pitchers wins the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young Award in the 2026 season. The award is determined by voting and recognizes the most outstanding pitching performance in the AL during the regular season, considering factors such as wins, ERA, strikeouts, and overall effectiveness. A tie or co-winners outcome is also included as a possible resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate probability of various outcomes for the AL Cy Young market. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $4,235,239, with $402 traded in the last 24 hours. This represents a consensus view of who is most likely to win the award, as determined by traders actively buying and selling contracts. The dashboard provides a unified view, allowing you to see how predictions are evolving across both venues. Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young? is currently favored, with a combined probability approaching 98%.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, leading to a “wisdom of the crowd” effect. Sportsbooks may be influenced by factors like public betting biases or the desire to balance their books. While there’s often a correlation, the 0.3 difference can be significant, particularly when information is asymmetric or public opinion is strongly skewed. Both offer ways to assess probabilities, but this market provides a unique perspective based on informed traders.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-making activity all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform attracts different types of traders with varying levels of expertise and information. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? at 98.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young? at 99.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the value of observing multiple venues.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the 2026 AL Cy Young Award, as officially announced by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), will determine the outcome. The market will settle to 100% for the winning player and 0% for all others. Traders should monitor official announcements to understand when the outcome is finalized and this market is closed.

Numerous factors could influence trading activity in this market over the next few years. Player performance, injuries, and trades are all significant catalysts. A dominant pitching season from a previously overlooked player could dramatically shift probabilities. Unexpected injuries to leading contenders would also likely cause substantial movement. News regarding rule changes that favor certain pitching styles, or even managerial decisions impacting a player’s workload, could also move this market. Monitoring baseball news and player statistics will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.