TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Michigan Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Michigan Senate election?

Total volume:
$12,737,582
Volume 24h:
$476,045
0.16%
Liquidity:
$726,988
10%
Open interest:
$6,101,134
4%

Democratic party

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% High Projected APY: 612% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
69%
3%
Yes 69¢No 33¢
2¢
N/A
$4,188,408
5%
25%
$2,319,250
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
69%
1%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
1¢
$186,884
$1,587,427
4%
44%
N/A
1w 18h
active
predict

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Trade
68%
1%
Yes 68.5¢No 32.3¢
0.8¢
$178,108
$55,415
0.5%
13%
N/A
6d 18h 47m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.9%
Yes 68.8¢No 32.4¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 2¢
predict

Mike Rogers (R)

Trade
33%
Yes 34¢No 69¢
3¢
$93,985
$52,552
0.29%
1%
N/A
6d 18h 47m
active
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
32%
3%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$5,685,190
3%
23%
$3,781,884
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$268,010
$1,168,590
2%
37%
N/A
1w 18h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
31.9%
Yes 32.7¢No 69¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election. Currently, the consensus probability that Democrats will win the race is 74.0%, as aggregated from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if a consensus cannot be reached among those sources. With a resolution date estimate of January 4, 2027, market participants should watch the primary elections in August 2026 to see which candidates emerge from each party.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on the resolution source and the definition of a winning candidate as the party nominee, with a fallback to official certification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
  • A candidate represents a party if they are the party's nominee.
  • Independent candidates are not considered part of either the Democratic or Republican options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Consensus: If the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market will resolve based on the official certification of the election results.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws after markets are live, PredictionHero will assess the impact and may adjust markets or offer refunds based on the materiality of the withdrawal.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The Michigan Senate election in 2026 determines which party will hold the seat for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when a representative of either the Republican or Democratic party is sworn in as Senator of Michigan for that term.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the Michigan Senate election by aggregating trading volume across both platforms. Currently, the combined volume for this market is $12,737,582, with $468,239 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions regarding the election’s winner. The current market price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on both venues, offering a dynamic forecast that updates as new information becomes available. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of expectations surrounding the Michigan Senate election.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *bet* on, incorporating a wider range of information and strategic considerations. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases and methodological issues, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling data can sometimes highlight discrepancies in perceived likelihoods and potential for unexpected outcomes in the Michigan Senate election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels, which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, different fee structures and market-making activity can contribute to discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? at 68.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan? at 69.0%. These differences aren't necessarily contradictions, but rather reflections of varying interpretations and risk appetites among traders on each platform regarding the Michigan Senate election.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Michigan Senate election by the relevant election authorities. The platform will utilize publicly available data to determine the winning candidate, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news sources and official election results leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about the progress of the Michigan Senate election.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and shifts in polling data are all likely to influence trader behavior. Unexpected events, such as candidate gaffes or changes in the national political landscape, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any news related to voter turnout or potential challenges to the election process could impact the market. As the election draws closer, increased media coverage and public attention will likely lead to higher trading volume and greater price volatility in this market concerning the Michigan Senate election.