TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks whether Spencer Pratt will receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Yes stands at 99.0%, based on certified results from the Los Angeles Department of Elections. Watch for the official vote certification on November 4, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents 15 overlapping binary conditions that all resolve to Yes for any result >= 10%, creating logical redundancy. Polymarket uses a single, explicit >= 25% threshold with a 50-50 fallback if results are unknown by December 31, 2026. Both platforms ultimately resolve on the same underlying event (Spencer Pratt's vote share), but the presentation and fallback logic differ.Hero Tip:
Both markets effectively resolve Over if Spencer Pratt receives >= 25% and Under if < 25%. However, Polymarket includes an explicit 50-50 fallback if official results are not certified by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not state a fallback condition. Traders should monitor whether results are certified by the Polymarket deadline and be aware that Kalshi may have different fallback rules (not disclosed in the source data).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Single binary threshold: Over if >= 25%, Under if < 25%. Includes explicit 50-50 fallback if results unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution based on consensus of credible reporting, with official City and County of Los Angeles results as tiebreaker.Kalshi:
15 overlapping conditions, all resolving to Yes for results ranging from 10% to 100%. No explicit No condition or fallback stated. Functionally equivalent to >= 10% = Yes, but the redundancy and lack of stated fallback create ambiguity.
Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election was held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve to “Over” if Spencer Pratt receives greater than or equal to 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Under”. The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Spencer Pratt divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the results of the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Kalshi
The percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100. Resolution uses only certified official results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results, while invalid or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets incorporate polling data alongside trader sentiment, campaign momentum, and historical precedent. Unlike static polls, this market updates continuously as new information emerges—endorsements, debate performance, or shifts in voter registration. Market odds often diverge from snapshot polls because traders price in uncertainty and adjust for polling error. Early-stage mayoral races typically see wider confidence intervals in both polls and markets, so comparing current odds to recent surveys can highlight where traders are betting against or amplifying pollster expectations.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms operate under different regulatory frameworks, contract specifications, and user bases. Kalshi's 30% threshold and Polymarket's 25% cutoff create structurally distinct bets, so direct price comparison requires translating between the two. Liquidity concentration, trader demographics, and platform-specific incentives also drive wedges: one venue may attract more retail interest while the other draws sophisticated arbitrageurs. These differences mean identical underlying beliefs can produce different quoted odds, creating opportunities for cross-platform traders to identify mispricings.
This market resolves on Nov 4, 2026, following the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. The outcome will be determined by the official vote share reported for Spencer Pratt in the first round of voting. Each platform will settle based on its respective contract terms and data source, so traders should verify the exact resolution criteria on their chosen venue before committing capital. Monitoring official election results and any official dispute windows is essential as the date approaches.
Major catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from high-profile figures, and shifts in voter registration or early polling. Media coverage of Spencer Pratt's platform and viability as a candidate will influence trader positioning. Unexpected withdrawals or entries by other candidates could reshape the competitive landscape and alter expectations about vote-share distribution. Economic or political developments affecting Los Angeles also matter. As election day nears, early voting data and final polls typically trigger sharp repricing, so late-stage momentum can swing odds significantly.
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