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$1,178,729,067

335,697

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4,579

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Iran leadership change by...?
polymarket

Will Iran's leadership change by 2026-12-31?

Mar 8, 2026, 10:58 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$24,167,962
Volume 24h:
$71,845
18%
Liquidity:
$542,347
6%
Open interest:
$1,126,461N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

25%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 25¢ buys you 400 shares | Odds: 25% Total Payout: $400 | Net Profit: $300 Multiplier: 4.00x | ROI: 300% | APY: 417% 307 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$45,436
$252,410
0.28%
2%
N/A
10mo 1w
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$208,902
$4,192,809
1%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$38,250
$22,994
0.05%
28%
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$62,792
$26,246
0.01%
31%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
3%
Yes 3.5¢No 96.7¢
0.2¢
$102,857
$505,841
0.63%
8%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
0.2¢
$84,110
$1,479,938
0.96%
21%
N/A
4d 12h 11m
active
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,964,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,386,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,411,721
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,230,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,552,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

August 22

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

August 15

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

March 13

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market on Polymarket tracks whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. The leading outcome—a leadership change by that date—currently stands at 30.5%, while a change by December 31 of the same year is priced at 22.5%. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting of whether Khamenei is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader. Watch for any official announcements of resignation or removal, which would qualify for immediate resolution regardless of implementation timing.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The Iran leadership change by...? dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for when Iran's leadership may change. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $65,569. The market has accumulated total volume of $24,167,962, reflecting sustained trader interest in this geopolitical event. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to monitor shifting expectations about Iran's political transition through market-derived probabilities.

Iran leadership change by... is priced on Polymarket through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers set odds on specific timeframes for a leadership transition. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome, Iran leadership change by April 30?, currently trades at 24.5% probability. Prices adjust in real time as new information emerges—such as health reports, succession statements, or regional tensions—and as traders rebalance positions. Polymarket's transparent price history allows you to see how market expectations have evolved over time.

The Iran leadership change by... market resolves on Jul 1, 2027. Resolution depends on whether a formal leadership transition occurs before that date. The outcome is determined by verifiable evidence of a change in Iran's supreme leadership or head of government. Traders should monitor official announcements, international news sources, and credible reporting to assess the likelihood of transition. The market remains open until the end date, allowing continuous trading as new developments unfold.

Key catalysts for the Iran leadership market include health developments affecting current leadership, succession announcements, major geopolitical crises, sanctions escalation or relief, and domestic political instability. Regional conflicts, nuclear negotiations, and international pressure could accelerate or delay transition timelines. Internal power struggles within Iran's government and military structures may signal imminent change. Economic conditions and public unrest could trigger political shifts. Traders monitor Iranian state media, international intelligence assessments, and expert commentary for early warning signs that might shift probabilities before Jul 1, 2027.