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$150.1b

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$142,857,652

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

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5

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Iran leadership change by...?
polymarket

Iran leadership change by...?

Mar 8, 2026, 10:58 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$28,126,454
Volume 24h:
$76,647
32%
Liquidity:
$318,111
40%
Open interest:
$1,283,312N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

26%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 26¢ buys you 385 shares | Odds: 26% Total Payout: $385 | Net Profit: $285 Multiplier: 3.85x | ROI: 285% High Projected APY: 632% 246 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
26%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
$40,304
$452,245
0.16%
4%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$123,822
$5,537,627
0.13%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$75,098
$345,542
3%
56%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$78,888
$796,500
2%
16%
N/A
4d 17h 41m
active
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,964,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,386,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,411,721
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,230,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,707,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,599,414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,552,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

March 13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks whether there will be a change in Iran’s leadership—specifically, if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader—by June 30, 2027. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 25.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome, a leadership change by December 31, is at 15.5%. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, as determined by Polymarket. Traders should watch for any official announcements regarding Khamenei’s position, as the resolution date estimate is July 1, 2027, representing the end of the betting period for this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with the Iranian leadership transition, specifically whether a change in leadership will occur by July 1, 2027. You can view the current odds, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $34,358. The total volume traded on this market is $28,126,454, indicating significant interest in this geopolitical event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of this transition, offering a dynamic perspective on potential shifts in Iranian politics.

Currently, the implied probability of a leadership change in Iran by the resolution date, as reflected in this market, differs from recent polling data. While polls suggest a degree of public dissatisfaction, they do not directly translate into a prediction of leadership change. This market represents a forward-looking assessment, incorporating a wider range of factors beyond public opinion, such as internal political dynamics and potential unforeseen events. It’s important to note that polling data often captures a snapshot in time, while this market continuously updates based on new information and trader sentiment.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of the event. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of the Iranian leadership transition occurring by the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in market sentiment. Currently, the most likely outcome, as indicated by the price, has a chance of around 25.5%.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a verifiable change in the highest office of Iran’s leadership has occurred before this date. This includes scenarios such as resignation, removal from power, or death of the current leader, followed by the formal appointment of a successor. The outcome will be determined based on widely accepted news sources and official announcements, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected health issues concerning the current leader, major policy shifts indicating internal instability, or large-scale protests could all lead to increased trading activity and a shift in probabilities. Geopolitical events, such as escalating regional tensions or international sanctions, could also play a role. Any credible reports of a power struggle within the ruling elite would likely cause a substantial movement in the market, as traders adjust their assessments of the likelihood of a leadership change.