TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Iran leader end of 2026?
polymarket

Iran leader end of 2026?

Feb 28, 2026, 7:15 PM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$38,895,558
Volume 24h:
$53,695
80%
Liquidity:
$2,281,588
6%
Open interest:
$861,337N/A

Mojtaba Khamenei

 - Polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 81.6¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% | APY: 80% 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei

Trade
81%
Yes 81.6¢No 18.7¢
0.3¢
$73,053
$6,219,347
0.82%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

No Head of State

Trade
4%
Yes 4.5¢No 95.7¢
0.2¢
$87,845
$1,151,140
0%
0.13%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Reza Pahlavi

Trade
3%
Yes 3.5¢No 97¢
0.5¢
$140,582
$675,579
0.01%
0.36%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 98.8¢
0.3¢
$60,672
$1,127,022
0.01%
0.52%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Alireza Arafi

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.8¢
0.1¢
$88,108
$2,313,877
0.01%
0.02%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ahmad Vahidi

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.3¢
0.2¢
$63,671
$778,406
0%
0.17%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Rouhani

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
0.3¢
$87,620
$944,950
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Khomeini

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
0.4¢
$77,405
$1,432,610
0%
0.05%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Masoud Pezeshkian

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
$66,169
$1,020,448
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$92,619
$919,922
0%
0.18%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
0.2¢
$88,021
$833,743
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$78,709
$438,367
0%
0.09%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Sadegh Larijani

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$93,717
$542,834
0%
1%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohammad Khatami

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$77,666
$5,193,822
0%
0.03%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$60,516
$3,694,928
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$58,056
$3,351,594
0%
0.03%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Shariatmadari

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$56,550
$3,148,439
0.01%
0.04%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ali Motahari

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$49,062
$837,364
0%
0.06%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Maryam Rajavi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$86,511
$807,337
0.01%
0.14%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$71,829
$436,815
0%
0.48%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Massoud Rajavi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$70,003
$399,831
0%
0.43%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Saeed Jalili

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$61,880
$389,913
0%
0.06%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$84,902
$344,175
0%
0.33%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$54,274
$306,921
0%
0.01%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohsen Araki

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$88,778
$286,923
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Frequently asked questions

The Iran leader end of 2026 dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts predicting Iran's leadership status at year-end 2026. The interface displays current implied probability, historical price charts, and 24-hour trading volume of $53,691. Traders monitor whether the incumbent or a successor will hold the position by Dec 31, 2026. The dashboard aggregates order flow and settlement expectations, helping participants gauge market conviction. Total group volume across all related contracts stands at $38,895,558, reflecting sustained interest in this geopolitical outcome.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect trader expectations rather than traditional polling, which rarely measures leadership succession directly. Markets incorporate real-time geopolitical intelligence, analyst commentary, and historical precedent into pricing. Unlike polls, prediction markets impose financial accountability on participants, often resulting in more cautious or forward-looking estimates. Polling on Iranian succession is sparse and methodologically challenging; prediction markets fill this gap by aggregating dispersed knowledge. The current market price embeds expectations about health, succession mechanisms, and regional stability that conventional surveys cannot easily capture.

The Iran leader end of 2026 market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, marking the final day to assess Iran's leadership status. Resolution hinges on identifying who holds the recognized position of head of state at that moment. The outcome is determined by official Iranian government records and international diplomatic recognition. Markets typically await confirmation from credible news sources and government announcements before settlement. Any ambiguity regarding succession, interim leadership, or contested claims may delay resolution pending clarification from authoritative sources.

Key catalysts include health developments affecting the current or potential successors, major geopolitical crises, sanctions escalation, or internal power struggles within Iran's leadership structure. Military or nuclear incidents could accelerate succession timelines. Statements from senior officials, constitutional amendments, or changes to succession protocols would shift market pricing. Regional conflicts, international negotiations, or domestic unrest may alter stability expectations. Economic conditions and factional alignments within Iran's government also influence trader conviction. Any credible reporting on succession planning or leadership transitions will likely trigger sharp repricing as participants update their forecasts toward Dec 31, 2026.