TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Iran leader end of 2026?
polymarket

Iran leader end of 2026?

Feb 28, 2026, 7:15 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$40,497,046
Volume 24h:
$8,814
55%
Liquidity:
$1,749,022
13%
Open interest:
$794,975N/A

Mojtaba Khamenei

 - Polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 86.1¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 132% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 86.1¢No 14.7¢
0.8¢
$56,311
$6,922,264
0.07%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

No Head of State

Trade
5%
Yes 5.7¢No 95.4¢
1.1¢
$25,159
$1,173,527
0.01%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Alireza Arafi

Trade
2%
Yes 2.7¢No 98.3¢
1¢
$49,005
$2,330,794
0%
0.08%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Reza Pahlavi

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
0.2¢
$106,874
$713,153
0.05%
0.64%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Rouhani

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$54,043
$954,007
0%
0.11%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ahmad Vahidi

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$43,169
$786,952
0%
0.14%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$46,210
$929,194
0%
0.16%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$55,118
$842,313
0.01%
0.46%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Masoud Pezeshkian

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$46,153
$1,037,160
0.04%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Khomeini

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$46,323
$1,456,636
0.01%
0.33%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Hassan Shariatmadari

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$59,007
$3,181,151
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$47,582
$1,137,200
0.12%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Maryam Rajavi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$42,221
$907,148
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Sadegh Larijani

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$49,514
$590,649
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$52,693
$477,558
0.01%
0.6%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Saeed Jalili

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$64,955
$425,377
0%
0.08%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$50,312
$393,580
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$66,131
$333,158
0.01%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohsen Araki

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$69,737
$326,257
0.3%
0.43%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mohammad Khatami

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$45,613
$5,222,715
0%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$60,859
$3,729,353
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$63,209
$3,386,358
0.01%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Ali Motahari

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$55,137
$860,234
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$72,000
$442,684
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Massoud Rajavi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$74,374
$436,702
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 25 of 32

Intro

This market tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be the head of state in Iran at the end of 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 84.0% probability, while the chance of there being no Head of State in Iran at that time is estimated at 4.5%. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority, as defined by the resolution source. Traders should watch for signals regarding the health and status of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as any developments impacting his leadership before December 31, 2026, could significantly influence the outcome of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than many publicly available polls and analyses regarding the future of Iranian leadership. While traditional polling often relies on self-reported data and can be subject to biases, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their capital behind. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies, access to information, or simply varying levels of confidence in potential scenarios. It's important to remember that this market represents a forward-looking assessment of probabilities, not a snapshot of current opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, with the platform ensuring that the total probability across all outcomes sums to 100%. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on determining who holds the position of Supreme Leader of Iran at the end of 2026. The outcome will be based on official announcements and widely accepted reporting from reliable news sources. The market will then settle based on which outcome aligns with the established leadership structure at that time.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. The health of the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a primary driver, with any public announcements regarding his well-being likely to cause substantial price movement. Political developments within Iran, such as shifts in power among factions or major policy changes, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, regional geopolitical events and international relations involving Iran may play a role, as could any credible information regarding potential successors and their likelihood of assuming leadership.