TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
kalshi

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Dec 20, 2025, 11:00 AM EST - Feb 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$7,386,276
Volume 24h:
$162,489
35%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$5,212,190
2%

Above 52

 - Kalshi

Above 52 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?

39%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 39¢ buys you 256 shares | Odds: 39% Total Payout: $256 | Net Profit: $156 Multiplier: 2.56x | ROI: 156% High Projected APY: 3,358% 97 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 52

Trade
39%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$1,889,727
4%
27%
$1,090,173
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

52

Trade
18%
2%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
N/A
$1,299,864
1%
53%
$861,893
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

50

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$472,020
1%
51%
$322,581
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

51

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$501,859
6%
50%
$420,000
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

49

Trade
8%
Yes 7.5¢No 92.7¢
0.2¢
N/A
$489,820
2%
62%
$390,313
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

48

Trade
6%
Yes 5.7¢No 94.4¢
0.1¢
N/A
$477,675
0.97%
62%
$373,842
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

47

Trade
6%
Yes 5.6¢No 94.5¢
0.1¢
N/A
$558,370
1%
36%
$447,646
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

Below 45

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
0.1¢
N/A
$740,946
0.33%
18%
$524,422
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

46

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.3¢
0.1¢
N/A
$505,641
4%
40%
$398,014
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

45

Trade
2%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
0.1¢
N/A
$450,355
0.7%
30%
$383,305
3mo 1w
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether the Democratic Party will control more than 52 seats in the United States Senate following the midterm elections and subsequent changes. Currently, Kalshi gives a 36.0% probability to the Democratic Party holding more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress, with a 16.0% probability they will hold exactly 51 seats. The market resolves based on the number of Senate seats held by the Democratic Party as determined by official counts, with resolution criteria tied to whether the party has below 45 seats on February 1, 2027. Traders should closely watch the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, as those results will heavily influence the final seat count assessed on February 1, 2027.

Kalshi

Resolution counts Democratic Party seats on February 1, 2027, with a critical distinction: individuals who caucus with the Democratic Party are included in the Democratic count, even if they are formally registered as independents. This approach recognizes that independent senators who align with Democratic leadership (such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders) function as part of the Democratic caucus for legislative purposes. The market resolves to the outcome matching the actual seat count on the specified date, covering the full range from below 45 seats through above 52 seats.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than many traditional polls. While polls show a close race, this market indicates a more nuanced expectation regarding which party will control the Senate. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can stem from various factors, including the ability of markets to incorporate a wider range of information and the incentives for traders to accurately forecast outcomes. It’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of the future.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Senate seat outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market’s depth – the volume of contracts available at different price points – also indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final Senate composition is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the Midterm elections as reported by recognized election authorities. The number of seats held by the Democratic Party will be counted to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to and following the election to stay informed about the progress of the count and any potential challenges to the results.

Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Feb 1, 2027. Major economic announcements, unexpected political developments, shifts in key Senate races due to candidate performance or scandals, and significant changes in polling data are all potential catalysts. Unexpected endorsements, major campaign fundraising reports, or even unforeseen events like natural disasters could also influence trader sentiment and cause prices to fluctuate. Any news that alters perceptions of the likely election outcome has the potential to move this market.