TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Jackson Koivun
- Kalshi
Jackson Koivun - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jun 23, 2030
$
This event tracks whether any of a specified group of professional golfers wins one of golf's four major championships—The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship—before the end of 2029. A victory in any of these prestigious tournaments by any of the listed golfers triggers a Yes resolution.
The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified golfers wins a golf major championship before 2030. Golf majors are defined as the four annual major championship tournaments officially designated by the sport's governing bodies: The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship. Each individual golfer has a corresponding market outcome, and the event resolves affirmatively upon the first major championship victory by any listed competitor before the deadline. A major championship victory is determined by official PGA Tour records and the governing bodies' recognition of these four tournaments as major championships.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, especially when considering long-term events like predicting major championship winners years in advance. However, sportsbook odds may react more quickly to breaking news, while this market’s prices evolve as traders incorporate new information and adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each golfer winning a major championship before Jun 23, 2030. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of each golfer’s chances.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2030, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which golfers have won a PGA Tour major championship (Masters Tournament, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) between now and that date. The outcome will be based on official tournament results and verified against credible public sources. Any golfer who wins one or more of these majors within the specified timeframe will be considered a successful outcome for those contracts.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A golfer’s performance in upcoming tournaments, especially strong showings in majors, would likely increase their probability. Injuries or significant changes in a golfer’s form could decrease their chances. Major announcements regarding a golfer’s career, such as retirement plans, would also move the market. Unexpected rule changes within the PGA Tour or shifts in the competitive landscape could also influence trader sentiment and, therefore, the prices in this market. Any news impacting a golfer’s ability to compete at a high level is likely to be reflected in the market.