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Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
kalshi

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Nov 8, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$12,287,185
Volume 24h:
$1,768
84%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$5,983,474
0.01%

Before January 20, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before January 20, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

27%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 27¢ buys you 370 shares | Odds: 27% Total Payout: $370 | Net Profit: $270 Multiplier: 3.70x | ROI: 270% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before January 20, 2029

Trade
27%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$582,588
0.03%
0.74%
$228,618
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
20%
1%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
N/A
$936,071
0.08%
1%
$418,294
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 4.7¢No 95.5¢
0.2¢
N/A
$6,214,197
0.01%
0.39%
$2,442,799
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before April 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$793,228
N/A
N/A
$535,913
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before August 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,761,100
N/A
N/A
$2,357,849
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will leave office before January 20, 2029, excluding scenarios involving death. Currently, Kalshi gives a 23.0% probability to this outcome, with a 17.0% probability assigned to Donald Trump leaving office before 2028. The market resolves based on whether Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, as determined by official sources. Traders should particularly watch the events surrounding the 2026 midterm elections, as the results could significantly shift the political landscape and influence the likelihood of this outcome.

Kalshi

The event contains four separate markets with different resolution dates: before August 1, 2026; before January 1, 2027; before January 1, 2028; and before January 20, 2029. Each market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump leaves office before its specified deadline, excluding departure solely due to death. If Trump leaves office due to death, the associated market resolves based on the last traded price prior to death, or if that price is unavailable or illogical, the Outcome Review Committee determines fair allocation. Each market operates independently, allowing traders to express different views about the timing and likelihood of Trump's departure from office.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump departure market tracks the current odds of Donald Trump leaving office before January 20, 2029, excluding death as a cause. You'll find a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1,768. The total volume traded on this market to date is $12,287,185. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the likelihood of this event occurring, offering insight into market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a probability of 27.0% that Donald Trump will leave office before January 20, 2029. This contrasts with recent polling data, which shows varying levels of public approval and speculation regarding his future political plans. It's important to note that polls reflect stated opinions, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. Therefore, discrepancies can arise based on factors like strategic positioning, information access, and differing interpretations of events. The market offers a unique perspective beyond traditional polling averages.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of the event. The price of a contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of Donald Trump departing office. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are actively setting the odds based on their analysis of political developments, legal challenges, and other relevant factors. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Donald Trump officially announces his departure from the presidency before the specified date, excluding any departure due to death. The market will consider official statements, resignations, or any other formal declaration of leaving office. The focus is solely on voluntary or forced departures that are publicly documented and widely recognized, and not on events related to health or mortality.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major legal developments, such as indictments or rulings in ongoing investigations, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public opinion, reflected in polling data, might also influence prices. Political events like a significant loss in a key election or a major policy defeat could also trigger movement. Finally, any statements from Donald Trump himself regarding his future plans would be closely watched and could cause substantial changes in the market’s assessment of the likelihood of his departure.