TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$141,844,315

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,993,399

484,032

Markets across

35,818

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,360

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

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CA-34 House Election Winner
polymarket

CA-34 House Election Winner

Jan 28, 2026, 1:29 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$50,525
Volume 24h:
$20,516N/A
Liquidity:
$31,965
1%
Open interest:
$4,937N/A

Democratic Party

 - Polymarket

Democratic Party - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 07d:17h:54m

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 5% 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
98%
Yes 99.9¢No 3.1¢
3¢
$15,227
$20,516
0%
0%
N/A
1w 17h
disputed
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$16,739
$30,009
0%
0%
N/A
1w 17h
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the CA-34 House election. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intention, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sample bias, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have their limitations as indicators of the final result, and neither is a perfect predictor.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the CA-34 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. Monitoring news sources and official election websites will be key to understanding when the resolution process is complete for this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, unexpected debate performances, or shifts in national political trends could all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any unforeseen events affecting key candidates, such as scandals or health concerns, could lead to substantial price fluctuations. Polling data releases will also be closely watched, although this market may interpret that data differently than traditional analysts. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.