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Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will the margin of victory be?

Sep 23, 2026, 4:14 PM EST - Oct 25, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,976,836
Volume 24h:
$106,952
85%
Liquidity:
$148,264
74%
Open interest:
$111,753N/A

Iotova <10%

 - Polymarket

Iotova <10% - Polymarket

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 25, 2026

Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Iotova <10%

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$31,737
$169,321
13%
2,762%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Iotova 10-20%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$40,187
$206,552
4%
3,030%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Iotova 20-30%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$32,944
$125,163
0.01%
1,152%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
disputed
polymarket

Iotova 30-40%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$43,397
$119,128
0%
1,471%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
disputed
polymarket

Gyurov 20-30%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gyurov 30%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$325,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Iotova 40%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$304,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gyurov <10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$133,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gyurov 10-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bulgarian presidential election tracks the probabilities of various outcomes related to the margin of victory in the first round. You can view the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume directly on the page. Currently, the total volume for this market is $1,976,836, with $91,611 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different results in this important election.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than recent polling averages for the Bulgarian presidential election. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of a more decisive outcome. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by methodology and sampling bias, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. These traders are continuously updating their assessments based on new information and events, potentially offering a more dynamic forecast than traditional polls.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission regarding the margin of victory in the first round of the presidential election. The market will determine which outcome, based on the margin of victory, is the correct one according to these official results. Traders will then be settled based on their positions in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant endorsements or unexpected policy announcements, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic data releases or geopolitical events impacting Bulgaria could also influence the market. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to rapid price adjustments. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing averages, could trigger movement in this market.