TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$131,483,547
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,200,781,395
338,101
Markets across
34,156
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,657
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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Harry Kane
all
4 markets
Polymarket
Predict
Limitless
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Latest in Sports
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
$
Intro
This market tracks who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or award, given annually to the world's best footballer. Across Polymarket and Limitless, the consensus probability for Lionel Messi winning stands at 50.0%, with a second-place contender at 41.3%. Resolution will be determined by the official France Football announcement. Watch for the award announcement expected around November 1, 2026, when France Football will declare the winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use France Football's official announcement as the sole resolution source and share identical win/no-win logic with a fallback "Other" option for unlisted winners.Primary resolution logic: France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)Core resolution logic:
- A market resolves to "Yes" if the named player is declared the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner by France Football on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET
- All markets resolve to "No" if the named player is not the winner, with any unlisted winner resolved under the "Other" market
- If no winner is declared by the deadline, all markets resolve to "No" except the "Other" market, which resolves to "Yes"
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Declaration by Deadline: If France Football fails to declare any winner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all player-specific markets resolve to "No" and the "Other" market resolves to "Yes"
- Shared Winner: If France Football declares multiple joint winners, each listed player market resolves to "Yes" and all others to "No"; the "Other" market resolves to "No"
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Limitless
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
