TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Time left: 03d:13h:42m
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award, recognizing the world's best male football player. The award is based on performance over the previous calendar year and is decided by a panel of football journalists. Markets are available across multiple platforms, each offering probabilities on various players.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms consistently resolve to the winner as determined by France Football, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is announced by the specified deadline.Primary resolution logic: France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the player officially awarded the Ballon d'Or by France Football.
- If France Football does not announce a winner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, France Football's official decision will be followed. If France Football does not resolve the tie, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Cancellation: If the Ballon d'Or award is cancelled for 2026, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Kalshi
If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Declan Rice wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vitinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Olise wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bukayo Saka wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Diaz wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pedri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cristiano Ronaldo wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rayan Cherki wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jude Bellingham wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ousmane Dembele wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Desire Doue wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mohamed Salah wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cole Palmer wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scott McTominay wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuno Mendes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Fernandes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bradley Barcola wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lautaro Martinez wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tijjani Reijnders wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Foden wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gianluigi Donnarumma wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rodri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marcus Rashford wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Limitless
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Ballon d'Or award, as announced by France Football, will determine the outcome of this market. The official announcement will be the basis for settling all open positions. Traders should monitor official sources for the announcement to understand when this market will be finalized. Volume currently stands at $158,874,523.
Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major injuries to leading contenders, exceptional performances in the Champions League or domestic leagues, and shifts in public opinion following award ceremonies like the FIFA World Player of the Year could all move the odds. Unexpected retirements or transfers could also have a substantial effect. Any news regarding the eligibility of players or changes to the Ballon d'Or voting criteria would also be a catalyst. Monitoring these developments is crucial for anyone actively trading in this market.