TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
limitless
polymarket
kalshi

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Total volume:
$11,341,336
Volume 24h:
$69,433
78%
Liquidity:
$445,853
38%
Open interest:
$4,706
41%

December 31

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

18%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 18% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$77,400
$424,820
1%
23%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
limitless

December 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

October 31

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$68,870
$6,016
180%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

October 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

September 30

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$101,172
$2,228,378
0.12%
10%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
limitless

September 30

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2.9¢
polymarket

September 15

Trade
3%
Yes 3.9¢No 98¢
1.9¢
$49,008
$147
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$149,402
$2,341,885
2%
12%
N/A
4d 8h 51m
active
limitless

August 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 50.1¢Max: 99.8¢
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,902
N/A
N/A
$2,689
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$738
N/A
N/A
$419
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,651,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,443,324
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,339,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,218,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 22

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 200

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,660
N/A
N/A
$950
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$624
N/A
N/A
$624
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergent threshold structures and resolution timing frameworksHero tip: Focus Polymarket trades on sustained closure indicators; Kalshi trades require monitoring August 2026 traffic spikes. Avoid cross-platform hedging without date/threshold alignment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ≤ 10 at any point before the listed date. Data revisions before the listed date are considered, but not after.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on transit calls above specific thresholds (150, 175, 200, 225, or 250) reported by IMF PortWatch during August 3-9, 2026 only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds one of several predefined thresholds between August 3, 2026, and August 9, 2026. All thresholds—ranging from 150 to 250 transit calls—are assessed against the same aggregated daily count across the full week. If the cumulative total meets or surpasses any of the specified levels, the market resolves affirmatively. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the measurement period, ensuring all data is fully available and verified before final determination.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.