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483,990

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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
polymarket
limitless

Will the strait be effectively closed by 2027-01-01?

Mar 16, 2026, 2:44 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$17,670,641
Volume 24h:
$39,801
59%
Liquidity:
$295,790
47%
Open interest:
$1,090,302N/A

December 31

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 16¢ buys you 625 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $625 | Net Profit: $525 Multiplier: 6.25x | ROI: 525% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
$87,151
$1,928,578
0.28%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

December 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15.5%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.5¢
polymarket

November 30

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$107,189
$133,753
0.18%
122%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$101,450
$1,635,977
2%
11%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
limitless

October 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.5¢
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,249,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

September 30

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,558,816
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,651,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,443,324
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,339,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,218,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$831,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

August 31

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed to maritime traffic, as measured by ship transit calls reported by the IMF PortWatch. Currently, the consensus probability of the strait being effectively closed by December 31st is 21.5%, while the probability of closure by October 31st stands at 12.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Limitless, with resolution determined by the IMF PortWatch data (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c). Traders should watch the IMF PortWatch data closely as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1st, 2027, to see if ship arrival numbers fall to the threshold of 10 or below.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Limitless markets use the same resolution source (IMF PortWatch) and the same criteria (7-day moving average of ship arrivals <= 10) to determine closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.Primary resolution logic: IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of 'Arrivals of Ships' for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
  • Markets resolve 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average is less than or equal to 10 at any point before the resolution date.
  • Markets resolve 'No' if the 7-day moving average never falls to 10 or below before the resolution date.
  • Resolution occurs upon reaching the specified date with available data, or 14 days after if data is missing.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Revisions: Revisions to previously published data points *before* the resolution date are considered. Revisions *after* the resolution date are ignored.
  • Missing Data: If data is not published for the resolution date within 14 calendar days (ET), the market resolves based on the data available up to that point.
Timing: Resolution will occur once the specified resolution date is reached and data is available from IMF PortWatch, or 14 calendar days after the specified date if data is missing.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling data. This is because traders have a financial incentive to assess probabilities correctly, leading to a “wisdom of the crowd” effect. While polling reflects stated opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *bet* will happen. This can be particularly valuable in geopolitical events where public sentiment may be influenced by bias or incomplete information. The current pricing suggests a different perspective than many conventional analyses of the situation.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed will be based on widely available evidence of significant disruption to commercial shipping traffic through the strait. This includes, but is not limited to, reports from shipping companies, government agencies, and reputable news organizations. The outcome will be assessed based on the degree of sustained impact on global trade routes.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Escalations in the conflict in Yemen, direct attacks on commercial vessels, or increased naval presence in the region could all drive up the probability of closure. Conversely, successful diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions or the implementation of enhanced security measures could lower the perceived risk. Any major announcements from key stakeholders, such as the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, or the United States, would likely cause a rapid shift in trading activity and price adjustments in this market.