TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Alaska Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Alaska Senate election?

Total volume:
$2,375,497
Volume 24h:
$109,927
194%
Liquidity:
$765,087
2%
Open interest:
$401,144
0.73%

Mary Peltola

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 14d:04h:48m

Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% APY not meaningful 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mary Peltola

Trade
74%
Yes 74¢No 27¢
1¢
N/A
$236,080
0.84%
7%
$153,853
2w 4h
active
polymarket

Mary Peltola

Trade
74%
1%
Yes 74¢No 27¢
1¢
$171,627
$1,033,627
10%
22%
N/A
1w 18h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
73.6%
Yes 74¢No 27¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Dan Sullivan

Trade
27%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$293,645
1%
9%
$191,270
2w 4h
active
polymarket

Dan Sullivan

Trade
26%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
$233,375
$652,987
2%
23%
N/A
1w 18h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
26%
Yes 26.5¢No 74.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Daniel J. Sullivan

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$45,946
0.02%
33%
$44,997
2w 4h
active
kalshi

Gerald Heikes

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$100
0%
0%
$100
2w 4h
active
polymarket

Ann Diener

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$73,701
$38,064
0%
3%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Ann Diener

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,894
0%
0%
$4,811
2w 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Richard Grayson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$75,406
$24,857
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Richard Grayson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,288
0%
0%
$3,047
2w 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Dustin Darden

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$65,495
$24,336
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Sid Hill

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,268
0%
0.28%
$3,067
2w 4h
active
polymarket

Candidate B

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$67,470
$2,406
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
polymarket

Candidate A

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$78,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 18h
active
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, forecasting which candidate will win the seat. Currently, the consensus probability favors Mary Peltola to win, at 73.5%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve according to a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification. Dan Sullivan currently has a 27% probability of winning. Keep an eye on the primary election results scheduled for August 17, 2026, as they will significantly shape the race and potentially shift these probabilities.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same criteria: the winner of the 2026 Alaska Senate election as determined by major news sources or official certification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election.
  • Resolution is based on a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
  • If no consensus is reached, the market resolves based on official certification of the election results.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Consensus & Delayed Certification: If the results are not certified by July 31, 2027, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a cutoff date, but would likely also resolve to a non-winning candidate in the event of prolonged uncertainty.
  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, official certification will determine the winner. The market will resolve to the candidate certified as the winner.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results, whichever comes first.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Kalshi

For direct elections like this Senate race, the candidate who wins according to Alaska's electoral system and either is inaugurated/sworn in or reaches the scheduled inauguration date without a different candidate taking office is declared the winner. Resolution is based on official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. In cases of competing claims, the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of designated source agencies is the winner. The market remains open until a rescheduled election occurs or two years from the original election date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market stays open until the re-run election or expiration.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likelihood of different outcomes in the Alaska Senate election. It aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the market’s expectations. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $2,375,467, with $110,675 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in the race and provides a real-time assessment of who is favored to win the Alaska Senate seat. The dashboard provides a unique perspective on the election’s potential results, distinct from traditional polling.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by sampling bias or question wording. This market, however, represents a continuous assessment of probabilities based on individuals putting their capital at risk. While polls may indicate a certain level of support for candidates, the prices here reflect what traders believe is the *most likely* outcome, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential shifts in voter sentiment. The spread between market prices and polls can vary significantly depending on the specific race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? at 73.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? at 74.0%. Differences in trading fees, market maker activity, and even the time of day can also contribute to these discrepancies. These variations are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Alaska Senate election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders are betting on which candidate will ultimately secure the Senate seat. The resolution will be based on the official count and any legal challenges that may arise, ensuring a fair and accurate determination of the winner. This provides a clear and objective basis for settling the market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news events, such as candidate debates, endorsements from influential figures, or significant changes in campaign finance, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic developments in Alaska or national political trends could also play a role. Polling data releases, while not always perfectly correlated with market prices, can still influence trading activity. Finally, any unforeseen circumstances affecting the candidates themselves – such as health issues or scandals – could lead to substantial price movements in this market.